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Who will be arrested before 2027?

Top outcomes

John Brennan 20%
Mahmoud Khalil 17%
Lee Jun-seok 10%
James Comey 9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$502K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2027

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$502.4k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$502K Vol.

John Brennan

20% market probability

20%

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0 / 2,000

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Mahmoud Khalil

17% market probability

17%

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0 / 2,000

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Lee Jun-seok

10% market probability

10%

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0 / 2,000

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James Comey

9% market probability

9%

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0 / 2,000

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Susan Rice

9% market probability

9%

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0 / 2,000

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Brandon Johnson

8% market probability

8%

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0 / 2,000

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Anthony Fauci

7% market probability

7%

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0 / 2,000

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Benjamin Netanyahu

7% market probability

7%

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0 / 2,000

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Candace Owens

7% market probability

7%

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0 / 2,000

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Tom Homan

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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Pam Bondi

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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James Clapper

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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Letitia James

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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Lisa Cook

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Adam Schiff

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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Hillary Clinton

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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Loretta Lynch

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Gavin Newsom

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Kash Patel

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Barack Obama

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Bill Clinton

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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John Kerry

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Joe Biden

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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