Open
Polymarket
Who will be arrested before 2027?
Top outcomes
John Brennan
20%
Mahmoud Khalil
17%
Lee Jun-seok
10%
James Comey
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Read more
Show less
$502K Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
Open on Polymarket ↗
The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.
$502.4k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$502K Vol.
John Brennan
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
Mahmoud Khalil
17% market probability
17%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 17%
+83 / −17
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 83%
+17 / −83
Explain your Yes on Mahmoud Khalil
Explain your No on Mahmoud Khalil
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Lee Jun-seok
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
Explain your Yes on Lee Jun-seok
Explain your No on Lee Jun-seok
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
James Comey
9% market probability
9%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 91%
+9 / −91
Explain your Yes on James Comey
Explain your No on James Comey
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Susan Rice
9% market probability
9%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 91%
+9 / −91
Explain your Yes on Susan Rice
Explain your No on Susan Rice
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Brandon Johnson
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Brandon Johnson
Explain your No on Brandon Johnson
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Anthony Fauci
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on Anthony Fauci
Explain your No on Anthony Fauci
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Benjamin Netanyahu
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on Benjamin Netanyahu
Explain your No on Benjamin Netanyahu
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Candace Owens
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on Candace Owens
Explain your No on Candace Owens
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Tom Homan
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on Tom Homan
Explain your No on Tom Homan
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Pam Bondi
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on Pam Bondi
Explain your No on Pam Bondi
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
James Clapper
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on James Clapper
Explain your No on James Clapper
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
Explain your No on José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Letitia James
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Letitia James
Explain your No on Letitia James
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Lisa Cook
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Lisa Cook
Explain your No on Lisa Cook
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Adam Schiff
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Adam Schiff
Explain your No on Adam Schiff
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Hillary Clinton
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on Hillary Clinton
Explain your No on Hillary Clinton
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Loretta Lynch
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Loretta Lynch
Explain your No on Loretta Lynch
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Gavin Newsom
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Gavin Newsom
Explain your No on Gavin Newsom
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Kash Patel
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Kash Patel
Explain your No on Kash Patel
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Barack Obama
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Barack Obama
Explain your No on Barack Obama
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Bill Clinton
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Bill Clinton
Explain your No on Bill Clinton
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
John Kerry
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on John Kerry
Explain your No on John Kerry
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Joe Biden
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Joe Biden
Explain your No on Joe Biden
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.