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Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 30%
November 30 26%
October 31 11%
October 15 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

$416K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2027

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$415.7k Vol.

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$416K Vol.

December 31

30% market probability

30%

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0 / 2,000

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November 30

26% market probability

26%

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0 / 2,000

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October 31

11% market probability

11%

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0 / 2,000

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October 15

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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September 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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