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US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

No 80%
Yes 20%
$78K Vol.
Polymarket

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$670 Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Hodge Conjecture 22% Yes No
Ramsey Number R(5,5) 18% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$61K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?

Microsoft 32% Yes No
Anthropic 28% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$45K Vol.
Polymarket

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

#5 100% Yes No
#10 100% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$278K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

1560 46% Yes No
1580 19% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$238K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

1525 100% Yes No
1550 100% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$142K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

↑ 1500 100% Yes No
↑ 1510 100% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$224K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$351K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$143K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?

December 31 100% Yes No
October 31 99% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

December 31, 2026 32% Yes No
October 31, 2026 4% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$485K Vol.
Polymarket

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$83K Vol.
Polymarket

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft 84% Yes No
Below 4,189.3 ft 16% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$36K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

7.9 or below 64% Yes No
8.2 – 8.3 11% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$28K Vol.
Polymarket

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16 46% Yes No
17–19 18% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$21K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+ 92% Yes No
1200–1249 4% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$86K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$833K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$333K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$9K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$117K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

No 84%
Yes 16%
$315K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$209K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech