Geopolitics

Forecasts in Geopolitics · Politics

118 open forecasts of 194 in Politics

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Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 31 56% Yes No
June 30 8% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$230K Vol.
Polymarket

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

No 78%
Yes 22%
$193K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$189K Vol.
Polymarket

Thailand strikes Cambodia by...?

June 30, 2026 3% Yes No
January 31, 2026 0% Yes No
$179K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$168K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?

July 31 4% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$157K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$149K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$147K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$142K Vol.
Polymarket

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$126K Vol.
Polymarket

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

No 91%
Yes 9%
$110K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will attend the NATO Summit?

Donald Trump 92% Yes No
Marco Rubio 90% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$104K Vol.
Polymarket

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$80K Vol.
Polymarket

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$77K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$71K Vol.
Polymarket

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$67K Vol.
Polymarket

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$64K Vol.
Polymarket

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$57K Vol.
Polymarket

Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

December 31 7% Yes No
July 31 2% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$45K Vol.
Polymarket

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$44K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$40K Vol.
Polymarket

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$39K Vol.
Polymarket