Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket and Kalshi, no betting.

All categories 0 0 (0 bps) ↓ 1,000 ↓ 10,000 ↑ 100,000 ↑ 1,000,000 100-110mm 100-119 <100mm 10 (250 bps) ↑ 105,000 <1.0T 1.0T–1.2T ↑ 110,000 1.10–1.14ºC 110-120mm <1.10ºC 11 (275 bps) ↑ 115,000 1.15–1.19ºC 115-139 ↓ 1,200 ↑ 120,000 1.20–1.24ºC 120-139 12+ (300+ bps) 1.25–1.29ºC 1 (25 bps) >1.29ºC 1.2T–1.4T ↑ 130,000 140 ↓ 1,400 ↑ 140,000 140-159 140-164 1.4T–1.6T ↓ 15,000 ↑ 150,000 ↓ 1,600 1,600 ↑ 160,000 160-179 165-189 1.6T–1.8T 1,700 ↑ 170,000 ↓ 1,800 1,800 ↑ 180,000 180-199 1.8T–2.0T 1,900 ↑ 190,000 190-214 1M+ 1st hottest <20 20+ 2000 ↓ 2,000 2,000 ↓ 20,000 ↑ 200,000 2,000-2,100 200-219 $200M 20-39 2.0T+ 2,100 215-239 2200 2,200 220-239 2,300 240+ 2400 2,400 240-259 2,500 ↓ 25,000 ↑ 250,000 2 (50 bps) 25 bps decrease 25 bps increase ↑ 2,600 2,600 260-279 26°C or higher ↑ 2,800 280-299 2nd hottest ↑ 3,000 ↓ 30,000 300-319 ↑ 3,200 320-339 ↑ 3,400 340-359 ↓ 35,000 ↑ 3,600 360-379 3 (75 bps) ↑ 3,800 380-399 3rd hottest <40 40+ ↓ 400 ↑ 4,000 ↓ 40,000 400-419 $400M 40-59 40-64 4 (100 bps) 420-439 440-459 ↓ 45,000 460-479 480-499 4th or lower 500+ ↑ 5,000 ↓ 5,000 ↓ 50,000 ↑ 500,000 50+ bps decrease 50+ bps increase $50M 5 (125 bps) ↓ 55,000 60+ ↓ 600 ↓ 60,000 60-79 6 (150 bps) ↓ 64,000 ↓ 65,000 65-89 ↓ 66,000 66,000 <68,000 ↓ 68,000 68,000 68,000-70,000 ↓ 69,000 7 ↓ 70,000 70,000 70,000-72,000 ↓ 71,000 7 (175 bps) ↓ 72,000 72,000 72,000-74,000 ↓ 72,500 ↓ 73,000 ↓ 74,000 74,000 74,000-76,000 ↑ 75,000 $755 76,000 76,000-78,000 ↑ 77,000 ↑ 77,500 ↑ 78,000 78,000 78,000-80,000 ↑ 79,000 8+ 80+ ↓ 800 ↑ 80,000 80,000 80,000-82,000 80-90 80-99 ↑ 81,000 ↑ 82,000 82,000 82,000-84,000 8 (200 bps) ↑ 83,000 ↑ 84,000 84,000 84,000-86,000 85% ↑ 85,000 >86,000 ↑ 86,000 86,000 ↑ 88,000 88,000 90% ↑ 90,000 90-114 ↑ 92,000 9 (225 bps) ↑ 95,000 Abbas Araghchi Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani Ahmad Vahidi AI / Artificial Intelligence Aiemann Zahabi Alexander Albon Alexander Volkanovski Alexandre Pantoja Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Algeria Ali Asghar Hejazi Ali Motahari Alireza Arafi Alphabet Amazon América de Cali Amir Ohana Amorim to win by KO/TKO? Andrew Yang Andy Beshear Anthropic Any Player Penta Kill Any Player Quadra Kill Any Player Rampage Any Player Ultra Kill Apple Argentina Arsenal FC Arvid Lindblad Ass August 31 Australia Austria Avengers: Doomsday Avigdor Lieberman Ayelet Shaked Barack Obama Barcelona SC Before 2027 Belgium Benjamin Netanyahu Benny Gantz Bernie Sanders Beto O’Rourke Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia-Herzegovina Both Teams Beat Roshan Both Teams Destroy Barracks Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors Both Teams Slay a Dragon Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor Both Teams to Score Brazil Brian Kemp Broadcom by December 31, 2026 by June 30, 2026 Byron Donalds ByteDance CA Boca Juniors Canada Candace Owens Cape Verde Carlos Sainz Jr. CA Tigre CDP Junior FC CD Universidad Católica Charles Leclerc Charlie / Kirk 5+ times Chelsea Clinton Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Chris Murphy Club Alianza Atlético Club Cerro Porteño Colombia Company A Company B Company C Company D Company E Company F Company G Company H Company I Company J Company K Company L Company M Company N Company O Company P Company Q Company R Company S Company T Completed Match Congo DR Cory Booker Cory Sandhagen Croatia Crusaders Cruzeiro EC Crypto CS Cristal CSyD Macará Curaçao Czechia Databricks De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 December 31 December 31 December 31, 2026 December 31, 2027 Deiveson Figueiredo Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 0.5 Devin Vassell: Points O/U 2.5 Devin Vassell: Points O/U 3.5 Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Discord Donald Trump Donald Trump Jr. Draw Draw (América de Cali vs. CSyD Macará) Draw (Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia) Draw (CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica) Draw (CA Tigre vs. Club Alianza Atlético) Draw (Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal) Draw (Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC) Draw (Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid) Draw (Egypt vs. Russia) Draw (IR Iran vs. Gambia) Draw (Ismaily SC vs. Pharco FC) Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC) Draw (Nice vs. Saint-Etienne) Draw (Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC) Draw (Petrojet SC vs. El Gouna SC) Draw (Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar) Draw (Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt) Draw (SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC) Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC) Driver A Driver B Driver C Driver D Driver E Driver F Driver G Driver H Driver I Dune: Messiah Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson Economy Ecuador Egypt El Gouna SC Elise Stefanik Elon Musk Ends in Daytime England Enrichment of Uranium Eric Trump Erika Kirk Esteban Ocon FBI February 28 Fernando Alonso Fighter A Fighter B Fighter C Fighter D Fighter E Fighter F Fighter G Fighter H Fighter I Fighter J Fighter K Fighter L Fighter M Fighter N Fighter O Fighter P Fighter Q Fighter R Fighter S Fighter T Fighter U Fighter V Fighter W Fighter X Fighter Y Fighter Z Fight to Go the Distance? Fight won by KO/TKO? Fight won by submission? FK Bodø/Glimt France Franco Colapinto Frank Donovan Gabriel Bortoleto Gadi Eizenkot Gambia Gavin Newsom George Clooney George Russell Germany Ghana Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel Gideon Sa’ar Gina Raimondo Glenn Youngkin Graham Platner Greg Abbott Gretchen Whitmer Grigor Dimitrov Haiti Hassan Khomeini Hassan Rouhani Hassan Shariatmadari Henry to win by KO/TKO? Hillary Clinton Hunter Biden Hurricanes Iran Iraq Ireland IR Iran Isack Hadjar Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 0.5 Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 1.5 Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Ismaily SC Israel Katz Itamar Ben Gvir Ivanka Trump Ivory Coast Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 Jalen Williams: Points O/U 7.5 Jalen Williams: Points O/U 8.5 Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 James Talarico Jamie Dimon January 31 Japan Jared McCain: Assists O/U 0.5 Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jared Polis Jasmine Crockett J.B. Pritzker JB Pritzker J.D. Vance JD Vance Joe Kent John Fetterman John Thune Jon Ossoff Jon Stewart Jordan Josh Hawley Josh Shapiro Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 July 31 June 15 June 3 June 30 June 30, 2026 June 7 Kamala Harris Katie Britt Kimi Antonelli Kim Kardashian Kraken Kristi Noem Lance Stroll Lando Norris LeBron James Lewis Hamilton Liam Lawson Liaoning Tieren FC Liz Cheney Lookboonmee to win by KO/TKO? Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5 Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 0.5 Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Marco Rubio Marjorie Taylor Greene Mark Cuban Mark Kelly Maryam Rajavi Masoud Pezeshkian Massoud Rajavi Matt Gaetz Max Verstappen May 24 May 25 May 26 May 27 May 28 May 29 May 30 May 31 May 31, 2026 Mexico Michael Michelle Obama Microsoft Mike Pence Minions & Monsters Mitchell to win by KO/TKO? Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf Mohammad Khatami Mohsen Araki Mojtaba Khamenei Morocco Moshe Feiglin Mostafa Pourmohammadi Movie E Movie G Movie I Movie K Movie M Movie O MrBeast Muhammad Mirbaqiri Mustafa Hijri Naftali Bennett Nasir Hosseini Navid Shomali Netherlands NewJeans New York Knicks New Zealand Nice Nico Hülkenberg Nikki Haley Nir Barkat No change No Head of State No IPO before 2028 North Macedonia Norway NRFI NVIDIA o Oil Sanction Relief Oklahoma City Thunder Oliver Bearman OpenAI Oprah Winfrey Oscar Piastri Other p Panama Paraguay Paris Saint-Germain FC Payton Talbott Pedro Munhoz Perplexity AI Person AA Person AB Person AC Person AD Person AE Person AF Person AG Person AH Person AI Person AJ Person AK Person AL Person AM Person AN Person AO Person AP Person AQ Person AR Person AS Person AT Person AU Person AV Person AW Person AX Person AY Person AZ Person BA Person BB Person BC Person BD Person BE Person BF Person BG Person BH Person BI Person BJ Person BK Person BL Person BM Person BN Person BO Person BP Person BQ Person BR Person BS Person BT Person BU Person BV Person BW Person BX Person BY Person BZ Person CA Person CB Person CC Person CD Person CE Person CF Person CG Person CH Person CI Person CJ Person CK Person CL Person CM Person CN Person CO Person CP Person CQ Person CR Person CS Person CT Person CU Person CV Person CW Person CX Person CY Person CZ Person DA Person DB Person F Person G Person H Person I Person J Person K Person L Person M Person N Person O Person P Person Q Person R Person S Person T Person U Person V Person W Person X Person Y Person Z Pete Buttigieg Pete Hegseth Petrojet SC Petr Yan Pharco FC Phil Murphy Pierre Gasly Placeholder A Placeholder AA Placeholder AB Placeholder AC Placeholder AD Placeholder AE Placeholder AF Placeholder AG Placeholder AH Placeholder AI Placeholder AJ Placeholder AK Placeholder AL Placeholder AM Placeholder AN Placeholder AO Placeholder AP Placeholder AQ Placeholder AR Placeholder AS Placeholder AT Placeholder AU Placeholder AV Placeholder AW Placeholder AX Placeholder AY Placeholder AZ Placeholder B Placeholder BA Placeholder BB Placeholder BC Placeholder BD Placeholder BE Placeholder BF Placeholder BG Placeholder BH Placeholder C Placeholder D Placeholder E Placeholder F Placeholder G Placeholder H Placeholder I Placeholder J Placeholder K Placeholder L Placeholder M Placeholder N Placeholder O Placeholder P Placeholder Q Placeholder R Placeholder S Placeholder T Placeholder U Placeholder V Placeholder W Placeholder X Placeholder Y Placeholder Z Politics Pop Culture Portugal Project Hail Mary q Qatar r Rahm Emanuel Rand Paul Raphael Warnock Rayo Vallecano de Madrid Republic of Ireland Revolut Reza Pahlavi Reza Pirzadeh Richard Grenell Ricky Simón Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Rob Font Ro Khanna Ron DeSantis Rosenborg BK Roy Cooper Ruben Gallego Russia s Sadegh Larijani Sadegh Mahsouli Saeed Jalili Saint-Etienne San Antonio Spurs Sarah Huckabee Sanders Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco Science & Tech Scotland Scream 7 Sean O'Malley Senegal SE Palmeiras September 30 Sergio Perez Sergio Pérez Seyed Hossein Mousavian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 8.5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Shanghai Haigang FC SHEIN Song Yadong South Africa South Korea SpaceX Spain Spider-Man: Brand New Day Sports Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu Stephen A. Smith Stephen Smith Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Steve Bannon Stripe Sweden Switzerland t Tala'ea El Gaish SC Team AG Team AH Team AI Team AJ Team AK Team AL Team AM Team AN Team AO Ted Cruz Tesla The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping The Odyssey The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Thomas Massie Tim Walz Tom Brady Toy Story 5 Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz Tucker Carlson Tulsi Gabbard Tunisia Turkiye Twice u Umar Nurmagomedov Unfreeze Iranian Assets Uruguay USA Uzbekistan Valtteri Bottas Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Vivek Ramaswamy Wadi Degla SC Waymo Wes Moore Wicked: For Good World Wuthering Heights xAI Yair Golan Yair Lapid Yariv Levin Yoaz Hendel Yossi Cohen Zohran Mamdani

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$114K Vol.
Polymarket June 30, 2026

Ethereum above ___ on May 30?

1,600 100% Yes No
1,700 100% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$106K Vol.
Polymarket

US strike on Colombia by December 31?

No 82%
Yes 18%
$999K Vol.
Polymarket December 31

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

September 30 14% Yes No
June 30 5% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$3.3M Vol.
Polymarket

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

No 86%
Yes 14%
$626K Vol.
Polymarket December 31, 2026

Fed Decision in July?

No change 92% Yes No
25 bps increase 4% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$7.0M Vol.
Polymarket

Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$617K Vol.
Polymarket June 30, 2026

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$2.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?

↑ $4,600 9% Yes No
↑ $4,650 3% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

No 78%
Yes 22%
$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

No 75%
Yes 25%
$282K Vol.
Polymarket December 31

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$911K Vol.
Polymarket June 30

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

No 82%
Yes 18%
$2.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

Iran leadership change by...?

December 31 28% Yes No
June 30 7% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$15.6M Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$206K Vol.
Polymarket December 31, 2026

Chisinau: Completed Match: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Luca Nardi

No 50%
Yes 50%
$54K Vol.
Polymarket Completed Match

Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$640K Vol.
Polymarket June 30, 2026

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

June 30 8% Yes No
May 31 1% Yes No
$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$2.4M Vol.
Polymarket by December 31, 2026

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$2.0M Vol.
Polymarket June 30, 2026

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$19.0M Vol.
Polymarket by June 30, 2026

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$450K Vol.
Polymarket December 31, 2026

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

No 91%
Yes 9%
$984K Vol.
Polymarket

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

1T+ 98% Yes No
No IPO before 2028 1% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$3.7M Vol.
Polymarket

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027 80% Yes No
Qatar / UAE 4% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

↑ $760 24% Yes No
↓ $720 1% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket

Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$493K Vol.
Polymarket December 31

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

No 52%
Yes 48%
$679 Vol.
Polymarket NRFI

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$65K Vol.
Polymarket December 31, 2026

Claude 5 released by…?

September 30, 2026 62% Yes No
June 30, 2026 22% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$3.9M Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$413K Vol.
Polymarket June 30, 2026

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

No 70%
Yes 30%
$59K Vol.
Polymarket June 30

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$244K Vol.
Polymarket December 31

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$911K Vol.
Polymarket May 31

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$493K Vol.
Polymarket June 30

Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

No 53%
Yes 47%
$82K Vol.
Polymarket

Netanyahu out by...?

December 31 57% Yes No
June 30 4% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$121.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

2026 Women's French Open Winner

Aryna Sabalenka 28% Yes No
Iga Świątek 28% Yes No

+16 more outcomes

$4.1M Vol.
Polymarket

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

December 31 78% Yes No
July 31 55% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$214.6M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by February 28?

Odds unavailable

Polymarket February 28

MLB: RBIs Leader

Aaron Judge 20% Yes No
Yordan Alvarez 8% Yes No

+23 more outcomes

$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

No 84%
Yes 16%
$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket December 31

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$3.0M Vol.
Polymarket World

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$3.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

June 30 14% Yes No
May 31 3% Yes No
$3.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?

No 62%
Yes 38%
$8K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

No 80%
Yes 20%
$637K Vol.
Polymarket December 31

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$10K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Harry Kane 25% Yes No
Ousmane Dembélé 23% Yes No

+22 more outcomes

$3.6M Vol.
Polymarket

Precipitation in London in May?

10-15mm 40% Yes No
15-20mm 28% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$12K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Israel closes its airspace by...?

June 30 14% Yes No
June 15 11% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$3.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

Precipitation in NYC in May?

3-4" 99% Yes No
4-5" 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$14K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 48%
Yes 52%
$3.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$15K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$3.2M Vol.
Polymarket June 30, 2026

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 25 - May 31?

6 26% Yes No
7 26% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$20K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$118K Vol.
Polymarket June 30

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Oil Sanction Relief 53% Yes No
Unfreeze Iranian Assets 47% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$134K Vol.
Polymarket

Precipitation in Seoul in May?

120-130mm 72% Yes No
150-160mm 0% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$24K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No 54%
Yes 46%
$67K Vol.
Polymarket NRFI

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by January 31?

Odds unavailable

Polymarket January 31

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 25 - May 31?

1 66% Yes No
2 17% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$40K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Bitcoin above ___ on June 1?

68,000 99% Yes No
70,000 93% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$158K Vol.
Polymarket

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026?

No 26%
Yes 74%
$140 Vol.
Polymarket June 30

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket June 30, 2026

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No 48%
Yes 52%
$2.8M Vol.
Polymarket December 31

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$19K Vol.
Polymarket May 30

Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 29?

30°C 100% Yes No
22°C 0% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$93K Vol.
Polymarket

Precipitation in Hong Kong in May?

220-230mm 46% Yes No
210-220mm 27% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$68K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

No 89%
Yes 11%
$5.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

Claude Mythos released by…?

July 31 73% Yes No
June 30 36% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$460K Vol.
Polymarket

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$72K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$228K Vol.
Polymarket June 30

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Naftali Bennett 38% Yes No
Benjamin Netanyahu 36% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$12.2M Vol.
Polymarket

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+ 60% Yes No
1200–1249 10% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$73K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$1.0M Vol.
Polymarket December 31

Natural Disaster in 2026?

No 74%
Yes 26%
$221K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$90K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

December 31, 2026 80% Yes No
September 30, 2026 66% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$6.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

GPT-5.6 released by...?

July 31 93% Yes No
June 30 86% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$253K Vol.
Polymarket

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

≤8 52% Yes No
9 17% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$93K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$93K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$6.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

Bitcoin price on May 30?

72,000-74,000 61% Yes No
74,000-76,000 20% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$109K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

No 64%
Yes 36%
$99K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

4 40% Yes No
5 24% Yes No

+10 more outcomes

$6.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

2026 NBA Draft: 4th Overall Pick

Caleb Wilson 66% Yes No
Cameron Boozer 18% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$136K Vol.
Polymarket

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$108K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

No 70%
Yes 30%
$112K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$136K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 29?

23°C 100% Yes No
19°C 0% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$82K Vol.
Polymarket

Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?

2000 28% Yes No
2200 1% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$138K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Trump out as President by May 31?

No 100%
Yes 0%
$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

No 14%
Yes 86%
$139K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 29?

25°C 100% Yes No
26°C 0% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$96K Vol.
Polymarket

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.10–1.14ºC 79% Yes No
<1.10ºC 16% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$147K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?

No 2%
Yes 98%
$18K Vol.
Polymarket June 30

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$156K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$558K Vol.
Polymarket December 31

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$186K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech