Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
October 31 2% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$566K Vol.
Polymarket

Fed Decision in January?

No change 62% Yes No
25 bps increase 34% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$565K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$565K Vol.
Polymarket

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 88% Yes No
December 8% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$561K Vol.
Polymarket

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

No 72%
Yes 28%
$549K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

Will MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026?

800k+ 100% Yes No
1M+ 4% Yes No
$548K Vol.
Polymarket Crypto

US military draft authorized in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$544K Vol.
Polymarket

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$544K Vol.
Polymarket

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

1.8T+ 60% Yes No
1.5–1.8T 23% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$539K Vol.
Polymarket

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$538K Vol.
Polymarket Sports

Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026

Harry Kane 97% Yes No
Lamine Yamal 93% Yes No

+29 more outcomes

$537K Vol.
Polymarket Sports

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

June 30, 2027 13% Yes No
March 31, 2027 10% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$536K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$534K Vol.
Polymarket

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

600B+ 94% Yes No
No IPO by December 31, 2027 5% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$526K Vol.
Polymarket

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<5 54% Yes No
5-6 38% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$525K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie 16% Yes No
Stefan Brodie 16% Yes No

+26 more outcomes

$523K Vol.
Polymarket

Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$40M 22% Yes No
$10M 22% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$519K Vol.
Polymarket Crypto

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

1.5T+ 45% Yes No
No IPO by December 31, 2027 25% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$515K Vol.
Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$514K Vol.
Polymarket

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 31 11% Yes No
October 31 2% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$510K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan 20% Yes No
Mahmoud Khalil 18% Yes No

+22 more outcomes

$509K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Exponent launch a token by ___?

December 31, 2027 50% Yes No
December 31, 2026 12% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$503K Vol.
Polymarket Crypto

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D) 57% Yes No
Joe Lombardo (R) 42% Yes No
$495K Vol.
Polymarket

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 31 30% Yes No
November 30 20% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$494K Vol.
Polymarket