Open World Polymarket

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Top outcomes

September 30 22%
November 30 0%
December 31 0%
January 31 0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

$2.8M Vol. Closes Sep 30, 2026

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$2.8m Vol.

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$2.8M Vol.

September 30

22% market probability

22%

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0 / 2,000

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November 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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December 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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January 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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February 28

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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March 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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April 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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May 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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