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All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$138K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

1560 56% Yes No
1580 30% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$133K Vol.
Polymarket

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$116K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest 94% Yes No
3rd hottest 3% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$108K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

Anthropic 93% Yes No
Alibaba 3% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$106K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

1510 38% Yes No
1520 12% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$105K Vol.
Polymarket

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+ 90% Yes No
1200–1249 5% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$79K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

1525 100% Yes No
1550 82% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$75K Vol.
Polymarket

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

No 86%
Yes 14%
$72K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?

2200 100% Yes No
2300 98% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$45K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 by...?

July 31 1% Yes No
July 19 0% Yes No
$44K Vol.
Polymarket

July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.20–1.24ºC 78% Yes No
1.25–1.29ºC 17% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$40K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut?

1470+ 81% Yes No
1480+ 69% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$35K Vol.
Polymarket

Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by July 31?

1800+ 100% Yes No
2000+ 100% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$34K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Precipitation in NYC in July?

4-5" 70% Yes No
3-4" 20% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$31K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?

600mm+ 64% Yes No
575-600mm 17% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$24K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$18K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

What will Elon post this week? (July 20 - July 26)

Tesla 100% Yes No
Claude 100% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$15K Vol.
Polymarket

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

No 84%
Yes 16%
$14K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

≤8 43% Yes No
9 18% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$14K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Precipitation in Seoul in July?

100mm+ 100% Yes No
40-50mm 0% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$13K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of August?

Anthropic 76% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+32 more outcomes

$11K Vol.
Polymarket

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Alibaba 70% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+23 more outcomes

$11K Vol.
Polymarket

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$9K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech