Markets
All markets
Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No
87%
Yes
13%
$138K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
1560
56%
Yes
No
1580
30%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$133K Vol.
Polymarket
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
No
99%
Yes
1%
$116K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest
94%
Yes
No
3rd hottest
3%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$108K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Which company has the third best AI model end of July?
Anthropic
93%
Yes
No
Alibaba
3%
Yes
No
+13 more outcomes
$106K Vol.
Polymarket
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
1510
38%
Yes
No
1520
12%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$105K Vol.
Polymarket
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+
90%
Yes
No
1200–1249
5%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$79K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
1525
100%
Yes
No
1550
82%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$75K Vol.
Polymarket
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
No
86%
Yes
14%
$72K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?
2200
100%
Yes
No
2300
98%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$45K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 by...?
July 31
1%
Yes
No
July 19
0%
Yes
No
$44K Vol.
Polymarket
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.20–1.24ºC
78%
Yes
No
1.25–1.29ºC
17%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$40K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut?
1470+
81%
Yes
No
1480+
69%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$35K Vol.
Polymarket
Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by July 31?
1800+
100%
Yes
No
2000+
100%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$34K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Precipitation in NYC in July?
4-5"
70%
Yes
No
3-4"
20%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$31K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?
600mm+
64%
Yes
No
575-600mm
17%
Yes
No
+8 more outcomes
$24K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
No
95%
Yes
5%
$18K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
What will Elon post this week? (July 20 - July 26)
Tesla
100%
Yes
No
Claude
100%
Yes
No
+15 more outcomes
$15K Vol.
Polymarket
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
No
84%
Yes
16%
$14K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?
≤8
43%
Yes
No
9
18%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$14K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Precipitation in Seoul in July?
100mm+
100%
Yes
No
40-50mm
0%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$13K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of August?
Anthropic
76%
Yes
No
Other
50%
Yes
No
+32 more outcomes
$11K Vol.
Polymarket
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Alibaba
70%
Yes
No
Other
50%
Yes
No
+23 more outcomes
$11K Vol.
Polymarket
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
No
92%
Yes
8%
$9K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Showing 25–48