Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party 86% Yes No
Republican Party 14% Yes No
$8.8M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

December 31, 2026 89% Yes No
September 30, 2026 74% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$8.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

August 15 19% Yes No
July 31 10% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$8.0M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
April 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$7.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 31 34% Yes No
September 30 22% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$7.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

5 44% Yes No
4 38% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$7.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

August 31 32% Yes No
July 31 6% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$7.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

July 31 10% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$6.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

December 31 3% Yes No
August 31 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$6.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

Russia nuclear test by...?

December 31, 2026 8% Yes No
September 30, 2026 3% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$6.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31 36% Yes No
October 31 23% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$5.6M Vol.
Polymarket World

Epstein client list released by...?

July 31 1% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$4.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro 75% Yes No
Renan Santos 15% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$4.2M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

No 66%
Yes 34%
$3.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

December 31, 2026 8% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No
$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

US strike on Mexico by...?

December 31 12% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$3.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Republican Party 56% Yes No
Democratic Party 44% Yes No
$3.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson 80% Yes No
Ulf Kristersson 16% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$3.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Alexandru Nazare 35% Yes No
Sorin Grindeanu 14% Yes No

+34 more outcomes

$3.2M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

No 86%
Yes 14%
$3.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 2027 42% Yes No
December 31 12% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$3.1M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Berlin State Election Winner

Linke 34% Yes No
CDU 28% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$3.1M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

No Meeting by September 30 27% Yes No
Switzerland 22% Yes No

+17 more outcomes

$3.0M Vol.
Polymarket World