Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$10.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027 68% Yes No
November 30, 2027 64% Yes No

+16 more outcomes

$8.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

December 31 2% Yes No
April 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$7.8M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

4 64% Yes No
5 16% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$7.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party 64% Yes No
Republican Party 38% Yes No
$6.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 31 28% Yes No
October 31 6% Yes No

+10 more outcomes

$6.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

December 31 2% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$6.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Russia nuclear test by...?

December 31, 2026 5% Yes No
December 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$6.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 2028 28% Yes No
December 31, 2027 12% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$6.0M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

December 31, 2026 6% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$5.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu 92% Yes No
Alexandru Nazare 1% Yes No

+36 more outcomes

$5.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Epstein client list released by...?

October 31 5% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$4.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 2027 44% Yes No
December 31 14% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$4.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 2027 9% Yes No
December 31 3% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$4.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$3.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D) 62% Yes No
Ken Paxton (R) 38% Yes No
$3.8M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

December 31, 2026 12% Yes No
December 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$3.8M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027 96% Yes No
US 2% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$3.8M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$3.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$3.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

December 31, 2026 5% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No
$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

US strike on Mexico by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤47 38% Yes No
48 16% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$3.2M Vol.
Polymarket Politics