Politics

Elections, policy, and government

415 open forecasts

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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Ryan Salame 26% Yes No
Stefan Brodie 24% Yes No

+26 more outcomes

$438K Vol.
Polymarket

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$76K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by...?

December 31 33% Yes No
October 31 27% Yes No
$63K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any country leave NATO by...?

December 31, 2026 2% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$211K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

December 31, 2026 22% Yes No
December 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$3.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

December 31 30% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$767K Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$406K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

December 31, 2026 8% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No
$534K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$194K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
October 31 4% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$117K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

December 31 28% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$482K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?

December 31 97% Yes No
September 30 95% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$398K Vol.
Polymarket

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

December 31 22% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$118K Vol.
Polymarket

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$444K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$11.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

December 31 3% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$955K Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?

December 31 9% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$277K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

December 31 38% Yes No
October 31 12% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$2.1M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$310K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?

December 31 2% Yes No
September 30 2% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?

December 31 17% Yes No
September 30 2% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$133K Vol.
Polymarket