Politics
Elections, policy, and government
415 open forecasts
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Events in Politics
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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan Salame
26%
Yes
No
Stefan Brodie
24%
Yes
No
+26 more outcomes
$438K Vol.
Polymarket
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
No
93%
Yes
7%
$76K Vol.
Polymarket
Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by...?
December 31
33%
Yes
No
October 31
27%
Yes
No
$63K Vol.
Polymarket
Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 2026
2%
Yes
No
June 30, 2026
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$211K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 2026
22%
Yes
No
December 31
0%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$3.7M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 31
30%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$767K Vol.
Polymarket
World
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
12%
$406K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Israel annex any territory by...?
December 31, 2026
8%
Yes
No
June 30, 2026
0%
Yes
No
$534K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
No
98%
Yes
2%
$194K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?
December 31
6%
Yes
No
October 31
4%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$117K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
December 31
28%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$482K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 31
97%
Yes
No
September 30
95%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$398K Vol.
Polymarket
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 31
22%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$118K Vol.
Polymarket
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
$444K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
No
97%
Yes
3%
$11.7M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
December 31
3%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$955K Vol.
Polymarket
World
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?
December 31
9%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$277K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31
38%
Yes
No
October 31
12%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$1.6M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
December 31
6%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$2.1M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?
December 31
8%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$310K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?
December 31
2%
Yes
No
September 30
2%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
December 31
17%
Yes
No
September 30
2%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$133K Vol.
Polymarket
Showing 313–336 of 415