Middle East

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

No 99%

Yes 1%

$19.9M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

December 31 12% Yes No

June 30 2% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$19.7M Vol.

Polymarket World

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

No 99%

Yes 1%

$10.3M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

No 80%

Yes 20%

$6.2M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

No 82%

Yes 18%

$5.2M Vol.

Polymarket World

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

No 96%

Yes 4%

$4.5M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

No 96%

Yes 4%

$4.2M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

No 96%

Yes 4%

$4.1M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

No 98%

Yes 2%

$3.6M Vol.

Polymarket Enrichment of Uranium

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

June 30 14% Yes No

May 31 3% Yes No

$3.3M Vol.

Polymarket World

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

No 76%

Yes 24%

$3.1M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

No 78%

Yes 22%

$2.9M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

No 99%

Yes 1%

$2.7M Vol.

Polymarket Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 32%

Yes 68%

$2.4M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$2.1M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$2.1M Vol.

Polymarket World

Internet Access restored in Iran by...?

December 31 96% Yes No

September 30 95% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$2.0M Vol.

Polymarket

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

July 31 18% Yes No

June 30 11% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.8M Vol.

Polymarket World

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

September 30 25% Yes No

December 31 6% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.7M Vol.

Polymarket World

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

June 30 22% Yes No

June 15 17% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.5M Vol.

Polymarket World

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Pakistan 2% Yes No

UAE 2% Yes No

+16 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.

Polymarket World

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

No 38%

Yes 62%

$1.4M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$1.4M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

No 92%

Yes 8%

$1.4M Vol.

Polymarket

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

No 51%

Yes 49%

$1.3M Vol.

Polymarket December 31

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

No 78%

Yes 22%

$1.2M Vol.

Polymarket December 31

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

No 96%

Yes 4%

$1.1M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$911K Vol.

Polymarket May 31

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

No 74%

Yes 26%

$883K Vol.

Polymarket May 29

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 86%

Yes 14%

$849K Vol.

Polymarket June 30

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

No 42%

Yes 58%

$829K Vol.

Polymarket June 7

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

No 90%

Yes 10%

$796K Vol.

Polymarket Unfreeze Iranian Assets

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

0-10 88% Yes No

10-20 8% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$700K Vol.

Polymarket

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

No 52%

Yes 48%

$698K Vol.

Polymarket June 15

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

No 86%

Yes 14%

$695K Vol.

Polymarket Oil Sanction Relief

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

No 86%

Yes 14%

$626K Vol.

Polymarket December 31, 2026

Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

No 96%

Yes 4%

$617K Vol.

Polymarket June 30, 2026

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

No 89%

Yes 11%

$488K Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$428K Vol.

Polymarket May 31

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

No 10%

Yes 90%

$334K Vol.

Polymarket June 30

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

No 86%

Yes 14%

$233K Vol.

Polymarket May 30

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

No 60%

Yes 40%

$225K Vol.

Polymarket June 3

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

No 18%

Yes 82%

$171K Vol.

Polymarket July 31

Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?

No 98%

Yes 2%

$132K Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

No 88%

Yes 12%

$118K Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

No 52%

Yes 48%

$88K Vol.

Polymarket

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?

No 86%

Yes 14%

$86K Vol.

Polymarket June 3

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?

No 80%

Yes 20%

$64K Vol.

Polymarket June 7