World

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

December 31 12% Yes No

June 30 2% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$19.7M Vol.

Polymarket World

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

No 99%

Yes 1%

$19.2M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

No 98%

Yes 2%

$10.0M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

No 93%

Yes 7%

$9.7M Vol.

Polymarket World

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

No 89%

Yes 11%

$5.9M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

No 85%

Yes 15%

$4.8M Vol.

Polymarket World

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$4.4M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$4.1M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$3.9M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

No 99%

Yes 1%

$3.3M Vol.

Polymarket Enrichment of Uranium

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

June 30 15% Yes No

May 31 4% Yes No

$3.1M Vol.

Polymarket

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

No 99%

Yes 1%

$3.1M Vol.

Polymarket World

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

No 82%

Yes 18%

$2.7M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No 46%

Yes 54%

$2.7M Vol.

Polymarket December 31

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

No 99%

Yes 1%

$2.6M Vol.

Polymarket Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 36%

Yes 64%

$2.3M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$2.1M Vol.

Polymarket World

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

No 84%

Yes 16%

$2.1M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Internet Access restored in Iran by...?

December 31 96% Yes No

September 30 95% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$2.0M Vol.

Polymarket

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

No 90%

Yes 10%

$1.8M Vol.

Polymarket World

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 98%

Yes 2%

$1.8M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

July 31 18% Yes No

June 30 10% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.8M Vol.

Polymarket World

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

September 30 25% Yes No

December 31 6% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.6M Vol.

Polymarket

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

No 98%

Yes 2%

$1.5M Vol.

Polymarket World

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

8 23% Yes No

9 19% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.

Polymarket World

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

June 30 28% Yes No

June 15 18% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.5M Vol.

Polymarket

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

UAE 3% Yes No

Oman 3% Yes No

+16 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.

Polymarket World

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

No 39%

Yes 61%

$1.3M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

No 54%

Yes 46%

$1.3M Vol.

Polymarket December 31

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$1.3M Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

No 91%

Yes 9%

$1.3M Vol.

Polymarket

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

No 78%

Yes 22%

$1.1M Vol.

Polymarket December 31

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$1.0M Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

No 91%

Yes 9%

$904K Vol.

Polymarket May 31

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 83%

Yes 17%

$829K Vol.

Polymarket June 30

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$814K Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$739K Vol.

Polymarket Unfreeze Iranian Assets

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

0-10 89% Yes No

10-20 8% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$700K Vol.

Polymarket

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$646K Vol.

Polymarket May 28

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

No 62%

Yes 38%

$627K Vol.

Polymarket June 15

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

No 86%

Yes 14%

$626K Vol.

Polymarket December 31, 2026

Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

No 96%

Yes 4%

$617K Vol.

Polymarket June 30, 2026

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

No 92%

Yes 8%

$606K Vol.

Polymarket Oil Sanction Relief

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

No 62%

Yes 38%

$605K Vol.

Polymarket June 7

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

No 88%

Yes 12%

$488K Vol.

Polymarket June 30

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$423K Vol.

Polymarket May 31

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

No 76%

Yes 24%

$280K Vol.

Polymarket December 31

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

No 32%

Yes 68%

$225K Vol.

Polymarket June 30