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Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
Top outcomes
December 31
9%
June 7
0%
May 31
0%
July 31
0%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
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$458K Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$458.2k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$458K Vol.
December 31
9% market probability
9%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 91%
+9 / −91
June 7
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 7
Explain your No on June 7
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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May 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on May 31
Explain your No on May 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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July 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 31
Explain your No on July 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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June 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 30
Explain your No on June 30
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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August 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on August 31
Explain your No on August 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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September 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on September 30
Explain your No on September 30
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
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