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Where will Trump and Putin meet next? How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? F1 Drivers' Champion Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Will US withdraw from NATO by...? What will SpaceX's public ticker be? María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? Israel closes its airspace by...? Russia nuclear test by...? Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Netanyahu out by...? Which party will win the House in 2026? NFL Champion 2027 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? World Cup: Golden Boot Winner Colombia Presidential Election Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Open Polymarket

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Top outcomes

Lebanon 20%
Indonesia 12%
Venezuela 12%
Saudi Arabia 12%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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$60K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$60.0k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$60K Vol.

Lebanon

20% market probability

20%
Yes 20% +80 / −20 No 80% +20 / −80

Indonesia

12% market probability

12%
Yes 12% +88 / −12 No 88% +12 / −88

Venezuela

12% market probability

12%
Yes 12% +88 / −12 No 88% +12 / −88

Saudi Arabia

12% market probability

12%
Yes 12% +88 / −12 No 88% +12 / −88

Cuba

10% market probability

10%
Yes 10% +90 / −10 No 90% +10 / −90

Syria

10% market probability

10%
Yes 10% +90 / −10 No 90% +10 / −90

Qatar

10% market probability

10%
Yes 10% +90 / −10 No 90% +10 / −90

Kuwait

9% market probability

9%
Yes 9% +91 / −9 No 91% +9 / −91

Iran

8% market probability

8%
Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92

Bangladesh

8% market probability

8%
Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92

Afghanistan

8% market probability

8%
Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92

Tunisia

7% market probability

7%
Yes 7% +93 / −7 No 93% +7 / −93

Iraq

6% market probability

6%
Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

Pakistan

6% market probability

6%
Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

North Korea

6% market probability

6%
Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

Malaysia

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96
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