Geopolitics

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot 46% Yes No

Benjamin Netanyahu 30% Yes No

+17 more outcomes

$48.5M Vol.

Polymarket World

Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by...?

October 31 12% Yes No

September 30 0% Yes No

$17K Vol.

Polymarket

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$852K Vol.

Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

No 99%

Yes 1%

$2.8M Vol.

Polymarket World

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

October 31 8% Yes No

July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$419K Vol.

Polymarket

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Elon Musk 100% Yes No

Sam Altman 27% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$58K Vol.

Polymarket

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Elon Musk 100% Yes No

Mark Carney 100% Yes No

+20 more outcomes

$222K Vol.

Polymarket

Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?

October 31 7% Yes No

May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$238K Vol.

Polymarket

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

No 99%

Yes 1%

$166K Vol.

Polymarket

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 31 12% Yes No

October 31 3% Yes No

$39K Vol.

Polymarket

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate 34% Yes No

Hormuz Agreement; R Senate 1% Yes No

$66K Vol.

Polymarket

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

No 20%

Yes 80%

$548K Vol.

Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 61% Yes No

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 34% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$142K Vol.

Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

No Hormuz Agreement 91% Yes No

Hormuz Agreement; D Senate 5% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.1M Vol.

Polymarket World

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

No Hormuz Agreement 96% Yes No

Hormuz Agreement; D Senate 2% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.8M Vol.

Polymarket World

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 64% Yes No

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 32% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$232K Vol.

Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 63% Yes No

Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 31% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$446K Vol.

Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 59% Yes No

Oil ≥ $85; R Senate 31% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$618K Vol.

Polymarket

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

Kuomintang (KMT) 66% Yes No

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 31% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$310K Vol.

Polymarket

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 30 56% Yes No

October 31 26% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$140K Vol.

Polymarket

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 9 100% Yes No

October 12 100% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$2.1M Vol.

Polymarket World

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

No 94%

Yes 6%

$866K Vol.

Polymarket

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 30 28% Yes No

October 31 3% Yes No

$299K Vol.

Polymarket

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

No 17%

Yes 83%

$847K Vol.

Polymarket