Fed & Rates

Fed Decision in June?

No change 99% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$89.3M Vol.

Polymarket Economy

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 77% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 16% Yes No

+11 more outcomes

$34.2M Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Fed Decision in July?

No change 92% Yes No

25 bps increase 5% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$9.5M Vol.

Polymarket Economy

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.0% 33% Yes No

3.75% 31% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$6.6M Vol.

Polymarket Politics

Fed rate cut by...?

December Meeting 20% Yes No

October Meeting 16% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$2.2M Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause 99% Yes No

Pause–Pause–Cut 0% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$1.8M Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Fed rate hike in 2026?

No 62%

Yes 38%

$1.8M Vol.

Polymarket Economy

US recession by end of 2026?

No 82%

Yes 18%

$1.6M Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Bank of Japan Decision in June?

25 bps increase 99% Yes No

No change 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$518K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

No 100%

Yes 0%

$436K Vol.

Polymarket

Bank of Brazil Decision in June?

Decrease 62% Yes No

No Change 35% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$293K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Bank of England decision in June?

No change 99% Yes No

25 bps increase 1% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$280K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Fed Decision in September?

No change 74% Yes No

25 bps increase 16% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$273K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Fed rate hike by...?

October Meeting 36% Yes No

September Meeting 26% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$164K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

No 92%

Yes 8%

$106K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Bank of Russia decision in June?

Decrease 92% Yes No

No Change 8% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$91K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?

No Change 99% Yes No

Increase 1% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$57K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Pause–Pause–Pause 92% Yes No

Other 5% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$54K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

0 65% Yes No

1 24% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$33K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

GDP growth in 2026

>2.5% 49% Yes No

1.5–2.0% 18% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$30K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

ECB rate cut in 2026?

No 86%

Yes 14%

$28K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Bank of Mexico Decision in June

No change 95% Yes No

Decrease 4% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$17K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?

Increase 82% Yes No

No Change 16% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$9K Vol.

Polymarket Economy

Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June?

Increase 88% Yes No

No change 11% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$8K Vol.

Polymarket Economy