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Politics
Polymarket
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Top outcomes
↓ 3.5%
100%
↑ 4.25%
23%
↓ 3.25%
18%
↑ 4.5%
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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$1.7M Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$1.7m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$1.7M Vol.
↓ 3.5%
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
↑ 4.25%
23% market probability
23%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 23%
+77 / −23
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 77%
+23 / −77
Explain your Yes on ↑ 4.25%
Explain your No on ↑ 4.25%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↓ 3.25%
18% market probability
18%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 82%
+18 / −82
Explain your Yes on ↓ 3.25%
Explain your No on ↓ 3.25%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↑ 4.5%
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on ↑ 4.5%
Explain your No on ↑ 4.5%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↑ 4.75%
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on ↑ 4.75%
Explain your No on ↑ 4.75%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↓ 0.5%
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on ↓ 0.5%
Explain your No on ↓ 0.5%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↓ 0.25%
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on ↓ 0.25%
Explain your No on ↓ 0.25%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↓ 1.25%
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on ↓ 1.25%
Explain your No on ↓ 1.25%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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↓ 1.5%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↓ 1.5%
Explain your No on ↓ 1.5%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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↓ 3.0%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↓ 3.0%
Explain your No on ↓ 3.0%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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↓ 1.75%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↓ 1.75%
Explain your No on ↓ 1.75%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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↓ 2.25%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↓ 2.25%
Explain your No on ↓ 2.25%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↓ 0%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↓ 0%
Explain your No on ↓ 0%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↓ 1.0%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↓ 1.0%
Explain your No on ↓ 1.0%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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↓ 2.5%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↓ 2.5%
Explain your No on ↓ 2.5%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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↓ 2.0%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↓ 2.0%
Explain your No on ↓ 2.0%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↓ 0.75%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↓ 0.75%
Explain your No on ↓ 0.75%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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↑ 5.0%
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on ↑ 5.0%
Explain your No on ↑ 5.0%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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↓ 2.75%
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on ↓ 2.75%
Explain your No on ↓ 2.75%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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↑ 5.5%
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on ↑ 5.5%
Explain your No on ↑ 5.5%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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↑ 5.25%
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on ↑ 5.25%
Explain your No on ↑ 5.25%
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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