How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Top outcomes

4.0% 100%

3.9% 28%

3.8% 14%

3.6% 4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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$228K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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All outcomes

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$228K Vol.

4.0%

100% market probability

100%

3.9%

28% market probability

28%

3.8%

14% market probability

14%

3.6%

4% market probability

2.0%

3% market probability

3.7%

2% market probability

3.0%

2% market probability

1.0%

2% market probability

3.5%

1% market probability

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