How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Top outcomes

4.0% 100%

3.9% 40%

3.8% 38%

3.6% 32%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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$216K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Resolved outcome: 4.0%

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$216.4k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$216K Vol.

4.0%

100% market probability

100%

Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

3.9%

40% market probability

40%

Yes 40% +60 / −40 No 60% +40 / −60

3.8%

38% market probability

38%

Yes 38% +62 / −38 No 62% +38 / −62

3.6%

32% market probability

32%

Yes 32% +68 / −32 No 68% +32 / −68

3.7%

32% market probability

32%

Yes 32% +68 / −32 No 68% +32 / −68

3.5%

23% market probability

23%

Yes 23% +77 / −23 No 77% +23 / −77

3.0%

15% market probability

15%

Yes 15% +85 / −15 No 85% +15 / −85

2.0%

8% market probability

Yes 8% +92 / −8 No 92% +8 / −92

1.0%

4% market probability

Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

Forecasts are closed for this market.

Public forecast history

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No forecasts were placed before this market closed.