Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela 10% Yes No
Kuwait 7% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$913K Vol.
Polymarket

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 5 100% Yes No
October 7 100% Yes No

+29 more outcomes

$887K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

March 31, 2027 4% Yes No
December 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$872K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

December 31 3% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$627K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31 74% Yes No
November 30 50% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$575K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Maia Sandu 100% Yes No
Donald Tusk 100% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$566K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
October 31 2% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$562K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1 100% Yes No
October 2 100% Yes No

+29 more outcomes

$541K Vol.
Polymarket

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

No 72%
Yes 28%
$535K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$473K Vol.
Polymarket

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?

December 31 9% Yes No
June 7 0% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$458K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

December 31 23% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$449K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$448K Vol.
Polymarket

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$426K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

October 31 11% Yes No
July 14 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$419K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 2027 57% Yes No
March 31, 2027 32% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$404K Vol.
Polymarket

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$355K Vol.
Polymarket

European military action against Iran by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
October 31 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$332K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 31 24% Yes No
October 31 6% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$330K Vol.
Polymarket

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$327K Vol.
Polymarket

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$309K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 4 100% Yes No
October 5 100% Yes No

+27 more outcomes

$303K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 2027 22% Yes No
December 31 9% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$286K Vol.
Polymarket

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

October 31 2% Yes No
August 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$267K Vol.
Polymarket