Markets
All markets
Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia
65%
Yes
No
Druzkhivka
29%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$573K Vol.
Polymarket
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
United States
12%
Yes
No
United Kingdom
2%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$437K Vol.
Polymarket
Iran invades Kuwait by...?
August 31
8%
Yes
No
July 31
2%
Yes
No
$427K Vol.
Polymarket
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
July 31
10%
Yes
No
July 7
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$404K Vol.
Polymarket
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
No
83%
Yes
17%
$366K Vol.
Polymarket
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
No
95%
Yes
5%
$336K Vol.
Polymarket
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
July 31
2%
Yes
No
June 7
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$329K Vol.
Polymarket
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela
20%
Yes
No
Lebanon
16%
Yes
No
+14 more outcomes
$308K Vol.
Polymarket
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
12%
$307K Vol.
Polymarket
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?
December 31
6%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$304K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 31
26%
Yes
No
September 30
10%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$274K Vol.
Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 31
74%
Yes
No
July 31
31%
Yes
No
$261K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?
July 31
100%
Yes
No
September 30
100%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$247K Vol.
Polymarket
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-20
94%
Yes
No
20-40
4%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$235K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by...?
July 31
99%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$200K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?
September 30
100%
Yes
No
July 31
100%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$189K Vol.
Polymarket
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
No
92%
Yes
8%
$187K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?
September 30
100%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$182K Vol.
Polymarket
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?
August 31
23%
Yes
No
July 31
9%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$178K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...?
December 31
99%
Yes
No
September 30
98%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$174K Vol.
Polymarket
US x China Military clash before 2027?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$170K Vol.
Polymarket
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
July 31
4%
Yes
No
June 7
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$165K Vol.
Polymarket
Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 31
42%
Yes
No
July 31
12%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$130K Vol.
Polymarket
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$111K Vol.
Polymarket
Showing 25–48