Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Dopropillia 65% Yes No
Druzkhivka 29% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$573K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

United States 12% Yes No
United Kingdom 2% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$437K Vol.
Polymarket

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

August 31 8% Yes No
July 31 2% Yes No
$427K Vol.
Polymarket

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

July 31 10% Yes No
July 7 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$404K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

No 83%
Yes 17%
$366K Vol.
Polymarket

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$336K Vol.
Polymarket

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?

July 31 2% Yes No
June 7 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$329K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela 20% Yes No
Lebanon 16% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$308K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$307K Vol.
Polymarket

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$304K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

December 31 26% Yes No
September 30 10% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$274K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

August 31 74% Yes No
July 31 31% Yes No
$261K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?

July 31 100% Yes No
September 30 100% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$247K Vol.
Polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?

0-20 94% Yes No
20-40 4% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$235K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by...?

July 31 99% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$200K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?

September 30 100% Yes No
July 31 100% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$189K Vol.
Polymarket

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$187K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Svitle by...?

September 30 100% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$182K Vol.
Polymarket

Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?

August 31 23% Yes No
July 31 9% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$178K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...?

December 31 99% Yes No
September 30 98% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$174K Vol.
Polymarket

US x China Military clash before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$170K Vol.
Polymarket

Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?

July 31 4% Yes No
June 7 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$165K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

August 31 42% Yes No
July 31 12% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$130K Vol.
Polymarket

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$111K Vol.
Polymarket