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Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Top outcomes
Maia Sandu
100%
Andy Burnham
100%
Keith Kellogg
100%
António Costa
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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$356K Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$356.1k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$356K Vol.
Maia Sandu
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Andy Burnham
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Andy Burnham
Explain your No on Andy Burnham
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Keith Kellogg
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Keith Kellogg
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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António Costa
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on António Costa
Explain your No on António Costa
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Steve Witkoff
79% market probability
79%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 79%
+21 / −79
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 21%
+79 / −21
Explain your Yes on Steve Witkoff
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0 / 2,000
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Jared Kushner
74% market probability
74%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 74%
+26 / −74
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 26%
+74 / −26
Explain your Yes on Jared Kushner
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Donald Tusk
66% market probability
66%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 66%
+34 / −66
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 34%
+66 / −34
Explain your Yes on Donald Tusk
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ursula von der Leyen
44% market probability
44%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 44%
+56 / −44
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 55%
+45 / −55
Explain your Yes on Ursula von der Leyen
Explain your No on Ursula von der Leyen
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mark Carney
34% market probability
34%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 66%
+34 / −66
Explain your Yes on Mark Carney
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mark Rutte
28% market probability
28%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 72%
+28 / −72
Explain your Yes on Mark Rutte
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0 / 2,000
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Emmanuel Macron
21% market probability
21%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 21%
+79 / −21
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 79%
+21 / −79
Explain your Yes on Emmanuel Macron
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Friedrich Merz
18% market probability
18%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 82%
+18 / −82
Explain your Yes on Friedrich Merz
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0 / 2,000
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António Guterres
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on António Guterres
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0 / 2,000
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JD Vance
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on JD Vance
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Donald Trump
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Donald Trump
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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