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Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Top outcomes
Maia Sandu
100%
Donald Tusk
100%
Andy Burnham
100%
Jared Kushner
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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$566K Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$566.1k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$566K Vol.
Maia Sandu
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Donald Tusk
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Donald Tusk
Explain your No on Donald Tusk
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Andy Burnham
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Andy Burnham
Explain your No on Andy Burnham
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jared Kushner
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Jared Kushner
Explain your No on Jared Kushner
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Keith Kellogg
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Keith Kellogg
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Steve Witkoff
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Steve Witkoff
Explain your No on Steve Witkoff
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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António Costa
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on António Costa
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Friedrich Merz
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Friedrich Merz
Explain your No on Friedrich Merz
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mark Rutte
38% market probability
38%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 62%
+38 / −62
Explain your Yes on Mark Rutte
Explain your No on Mark Rutte
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ursula von der Leyen
37% market probability
37%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 37%
+63 / −37
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 63%
+37 / −63
Explain your Yes on Ursula von der Leyen
Explain your No on Ursula von der Leyen
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Emmanuel Macron
18% market probability
18%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 82%
+18 / −82
Explain your Yes on Emmanuel Macron
Explain your No on Emmanuel Macron
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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António Guterres
14% market probability
14%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 86%
+14 / −86
Explain your Yes on António Guterres
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mark Carney
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on Mark Carney
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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JD Vance
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on JD Vance
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Donald Trump
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on Donald Trump
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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