Open Polymarket

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

Top outcomes

March 31, 2027 7%
December 31 0%
September 30 0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg Sumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

$818K Vol. Closes Mar 31, 2027

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$817.7k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$818K Vol.

March 31, 2027

7% market probability

7%

Explain your Yes on March 31, 2027 Explain your No on March 31, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

December 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

September 30

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on September 30 Explain your No on September 30 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.