Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 88% Yes No
December 8% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$558K Vol.
Polymarket

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 94% Yes No
Marine Le Pen 92% Yes No

+44 more outcomes

$558K Vol.
Polymarket

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

No 70%
Yes 30%
$549K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

US military draft authorized in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$544K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

December 31, 2026 5% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No
$536K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$534K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-24 44% Yes No
25-29 24% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$530K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Daniel Penny 26% Yes No
Donald Brodie 24% Yes No

+26 more outcomes

$519K Vol.
Polymarket

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$516K Vol.
Polymarket

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 31 11% Yes No
October 31 2% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$508K Vol.
Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$506K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan 20% Yes No
Mahmoud Khalil 17% Yes No

+22 more outcomes

$502K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$487K Vol.
Polymarket

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

December 31, 2026 4% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$486K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund 74% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+33 more outcomes

$473K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 31 84% Yes No
October 31 20% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$464K Vol.
Polymarket

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$463K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?

December 31 5% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$453K Vol.
Polymarket

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$449K Vol.
Polymarket

Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

No 72%
Yes 28%
$446K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D) 72% Yes No
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 28% Yes No
$438K Vol.
Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 62% Yes No
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 31% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$433K Vol.
Polymarket

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D) 52% Yes No
Joe Lombardo (R) 48% Yes No
$424K Vol.
Polymarket

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

October 31 5% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$419K Vol.
Polymarket