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Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?
Top outcomes
J.D. Vance
89%
Pete Buttigieg
87%
Gavin Newsom
82%
Ted Cruz
78%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$62.2k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$62K Vol.
J.D. Vance
89% market probability
89%
Yes 89%
+11 / −89
No 11%
+89 / −11
Pete Buttigieg
87% market probability
87%
Yes 87%
+13 / −87
No 13%
+87 / −13
Gavin Newsom
82% market probability
82%
Yes 82%
+18 / −82
No 18%
+82 / −18
Ted Cruz
78% market probability
78%
Yes 78%
+22 / −78
No 22%
+78 / −22
Andy Beshear
78% market probability
78%
Yes 78%
+22 / −78
No 22%
+78 / −22
Rahm Emanuel
72% market probability
72%
Yes 72%
+28 / −72
No 28%
+72 / −28
Kamala Harris
69% market probability
69%
Yes 69%
+31 / −69
No 31%
+69 / −31
Cory Booker
68% market probability
68%
Yes 68%
+32 / −68
No 32%
+68 / −32
Ron DeSantis
68% market probability
68%
Yes 68%
+32 / −68
No 32%
+68 / −32
Andrew Yang
67% market probability
67%
Yes 67%
+33 / −67
No 33%
+67 / −33
J.B. Pritzker
65% market probability
65%
Yes 65%
+35 / −65
No 35%
+65 / −35
Mark Kelly
64% market probability
64%
Yes 64%
+36 / −64
No 36%
+64 / −36
Jon Ossoff
62% market probability
62%
Yes 62%
+38 / −62
No 38%
+62 / −38
Josh Shapiro
62% market probability
62%
Yes 62%
+38 / −62
No 38%
+62 / −38
Wes Moore
60% market probability
60%
Yes 60%
+40 / −60
No 40%
+60 / −40
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
56% market probability
56%
Yes 56%
+44 / −56
No 44%
+56 / −44
Candace Owens
49% market probability
49%
Yes 49%
+51 / −49
No 51%
+49 / −51
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
48% market probability
48%
Yes 48%
+52 / −48
No 52%
+48 / −52
Marco Rubio
38% market probability
38%
Yes 38%
+62 / −38
No 62%
+38 / −62
Raphael Warnock
37% market probability
37%
Yes 37%
+63 / −37
No 63%
+37 / −63
Rand Paul
35% market probability
35%
Yes 35%
+65 / −35
No 65%
+35 / −65
Jared Polis
34% market probability
34%
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
No 66%
+34 / −66
Nikki Haley
34% market probability
34%
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
No 66%
+34 / −66
John Fetterman
34% market probability
34%
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
No 66%
+34 / −66
Elise Stefanik
33% market probability
33%
Yes 33%
+67 / −33
No 67%
+33 / −67
Gretchen Whitmer
32% market probability
32%
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
No 68%
+32 / −68
Glenn Youngkin
32% market probability
32%
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
No 68%
+32 / −68
Josh Hawley
29% market probability
29%
Yes 29%
+71 / −29
No 71%
+29 / −71
Don Lemon
28% market probability
28%
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
No 72%
+28 / −72
Kristi Noem
28% market probability
28%
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
No 72%
+28 / −72
Beto O’Rourke
26% market probability
26%
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
No 74%
+26 / −74
Marjorie Taylor Greene
26% market probability
26%
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
No 74%
+26 / −74
Brian Kemp
26% market probability
26%
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
No 74%
+26 / −74
Katie Britt
24% market probability
24%
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
No 76%
+24 / −76
Byron Donalds
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Tucker Carlson
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Greg Abbott
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Phil Murphy
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Gina Raimondo
20% market probability
20%
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
No 80%
+20 / −80
George Clooney
20% market probability
20%
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
No 80%
+20 / −80
Elon Musk
20% market probability
20%
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
No 80%
+20 / −80
Vivek Ramaswamy
19% market probability
19%
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
No 81%
+19 / −81
Stephen A. Smith
18% market probability
18%
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
No 82%
+18 / −82
Tulsi Gabbard
18% market probability
18%
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
No 82%
+18 / −82
Donald Trump Jr.
18% market probability
18%
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
No 82%
+18 / −82
Steve Bannon
18% market probability
18%
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
No 82%
+18 / −82
Mark Cuban
17% market probability
17%
Yes 17%
+83 / −17
No 83%
+17 / −83
Mike Pence
17% market probability
17%
Yes 17%
+83 / −17
No 83%
+17 / −83
Jon Stewart
17% market probability
17%
Yes 17%
+83 / −17
No 83%
+17 / −83
John Thune
16% market probability
16%
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
No 84%
+16 / −84
Bernie Sanders
16% market probability
16%
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
No 84%
+16 / −84
Matt Gaetz
16% market probability
16%
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
No 84%
+16 / −84
Michelle Obama
16% market probability
16%
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
No 84%
+16 / −84
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
16% market probability
16%
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
No 84%
+16 / −84
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
16% market probability
16%
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
No 84%
+16 / −84
Roy Cooper
15% market probability
15%
Yes 15%
+85 / −15
No 85%
+15 / −85
Kim Kardashian
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Hunter Biden
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Tom Brady
13% market probability
13%
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
No 87%
+13 / −87
Oprah Winfrey
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Liz Cheney
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Donald Trump
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Tim Walz
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Ivanka Trump
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Zohran Mamdani
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
MrBeast
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Erika Kirk
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Hillary Clinton
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Chelsea Clinton
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Barack Obama
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
LeBron James
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Public forecast history
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