California Governor Election Winner Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Largest Company end of December 2026? Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Putin out as President of Russia by...? Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Presidential Election Winner 2028 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
California Governor Election Winner Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Largest Company end of December 2026? Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Putin out as President of Russia by...? Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Presidential Election Winner 2028 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep 50% Yes No
R Senate, D House 36% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$10.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

March 31, 2027 60% Yes No
December 31, 2026 40% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$10.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$10.6M Vol.
Polymarket World

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party 88% Yes No
Republican Party 12% Yes No
$10.0M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
April 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$7.8M Vol.
Polymarket World

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

4 78% Yes No
6 10% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$7.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$7.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 31 28% Yes No
September 30 10% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$6.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

June 30, 2027 50% Yes No
March 31, 2027 38% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$6.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

December 31 2% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$6.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

Russia nuclear test by...?

December 31, 2026 7% Yes No
September 30, 2026 1% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$6.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro 88% Yes No
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7% Yes No

+16 more outcomes

$6.1M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

No Meeting by September 30 88% Yes No
Switzerland 6% Yes No

+17 more outcomes

$5.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

Epstein client list released by...?

October 31 14% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$4.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson 88% Yes No
Ulf Kristersson 12% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$4.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party 50% Yes No
Republican Party 50% Yes No
$4.1M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 2027 12% Yes No
December 31 6% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$3.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

No 70%
Yes 30%
$3.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

December 31, 2026 22% Yes No
December 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$3.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 2027 36% Yes No
December 31 6% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$3.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

December 31, 2026 8% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No
$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

US strike on Mexico by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Alexandru Nazare 46% Yes No
Eugen Tomac 28% Yes No

+34 more outcomes

$3.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Berlin State Election Winner

Linke 59% Yes No
CDU 28% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$3.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics