Politics

Elections, policy, and government

416 open forecasts

Events in Politics

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

No 82%
Yes 18%
$193K Vol.
Polymarket

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$628K Vol.
Polymarket

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 83% Yes No
No Head of State 5% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$39.0M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$65K Vol.
Polymarket

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$195K Vol.
Polymarket

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$106K Vol.
Polymarket

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$250K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Alexandru Nazare 46% Yes No
Eugen Tomac 23% Yes No

+34 more outcomes

$3.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

No 18%
Yes 82%
$758K Vol.
Polymarket

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

No 74%
Yes 26%
$376K Vol.
Polymarket

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot 49% Yes No
Benjamin Netanyahu 32% Yes No

+17 more outcomes

$34.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

No 58%
Yes 42%
$319K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$635K Vol.
Polymarket World

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

Delcy Rodríguez 90% Yes No
María Corina Machado 4% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$375K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

J.D. Vance 88% Yes No
Pete Buttigieg 87% Yes No

+69 more outcomes

$62K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Alberta join the US?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$2.2M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$263K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

No 89%
Yes 11%
$33K Vol.
Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$40.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$75K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

No 3%
Yes 97%
$399K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$1.0M Vol.
Polymarket

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$748K Vol.
Polymarket

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$3.1M Vol.
Polymarket Politics