Politics

Elections, policy, and government

191 open forecasts

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Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$142K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$1.0M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$44K Vol.
Polymarket

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

December 31 5% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$5.9M Vol.
Polymarket World

Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?

December 31 78% Yes No
June 30 1% Yes No
$30K Vol.
Polymarket

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$2.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

China x India military clash by...?

December 31, 2026 10% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$297K Vol.
Polymarket

Starmer out by...?

December 31 76% Yes No
October 31 76% Yes No

+11 more outcomes

$31.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Ukraine election called by...?

December 31, 2026 15% Yes No
June 30, 2026 2% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$1.6M Vol.
Polymarket World

Ukraine election held by...?

December 31, 2026 14% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

December 31, 2026 10% Yes No
June 30, 2026 1% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.6M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will any country leave NATO by...?

December 31, 2026 5% Yes No
June 30, 2026 1% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

December 31, 2026 90% Yes No
September 30, 2026 80% Yes No

+11 more outcomes

$6.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$7.6M Vol.
Polymarket World

Nigerian Presidential Election Winner

Bola Tinubu 70% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+20 more outcomes

$32K Vol.
Polymarket

Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

No 82%
Yes 18%
$43K Vol.
Polymarket

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella 26% Yes No
Édouard Philippe 20% Yes No

+34 more outcomes

$99.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

Paramount 83% Yes No
None by June 30, 2027 12% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 84%
Yes 16%
$717K Vol.
Polymarket World

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 23% Yes No
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10% Yes No

+43 more outcomes

$1198.2M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Marco Rubio 16% Yes No
JD Vance 15% Yes No

+35 more outcomes

$628.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 33% Yes No
Marco Rubio 23% Yes No

+33 more outcomes

$658.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic 58% Yes No
Republican 40% Yes No
$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics