Geopolitics

Forecasts in Geopolitics · Politics

165 open forecasts of 414 in Politics

Events in Geopolitics

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Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$21K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$170K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine election called by...?

December 31, 2026 11% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$1.8M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Ukraine election held by...?

December 31, 2026 4% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
September 30 2% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$527K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

December 31, 2026 4% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$2.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

No 84%
Yes 16%
$217K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$36K Vol.
Polymarket

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 31 64% Yes No
October 31 40% Yes No

+18 more outcomes

$24.1M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
July 17 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$973K Vol.
Polymarket World

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$186K Vol.
Polymarket

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 31 34% Yes No
October 31 22% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$46K Vol.
Polymarket

US military draft authorized in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$524K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. nuclear test by...?

December 31, 2026 5% Yes No
September 30, 2026 1% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$794K Vol.
Polymarket

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
September 30 1% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$29.2M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$179K Vol.
Polymarket

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$186K Vol.
Polymarket

US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?

No 89%
Yes 11%
$36K Vol.
Polymarket

US strike on Mexico by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$166K Vol.
Polymarket

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

No 13%
Yes 87%
$241K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

September 30 4% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$661K Vol.
Polymarket