Geopolitics

Forecasts in Geopolitics · Politics

118 open forecasts of 194 in Politics

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Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$718K Vol.
Polymarket World

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland 35% Yes No
Egypt 29% Yes No

+10 more outcomes

$713K Vol.
Polymarket World

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 84%
Yes 16%
$705K Vol.
Polymarket World

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

December 31 20% Yes No
June 30 4% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$703K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$689K Vol.
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Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$684K Vol.
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U.S. nuclear test by...?

December 31, 2026 10% Yes No
September 30, 2026 5% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$670K Vol.
Polymarket World

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

No 28%
Yes 72%
$609K Vol.
Polymarket World

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$604K Vol.
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Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

No 82%
Yes 18%
$601K Vol.
Polymarket World

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

No 57%
Yes 42%
$517K Vol.
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Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$508K Vol.
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Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by...?

June 30 8% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$446K Vol.
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Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Lebanon 2% Yes No
Kuwait 2% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$433K Vol.
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Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

December 31, 2026 33% Yes No
June 30, 2026 5% Yes No
$401K Vol.
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Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$366K Vol.
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Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico 29% Yes No
United Kingdom 25% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$337K Vol.
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Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?

December 31 98% Yes No
June 30 5% Yes No
$329K Vol.
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US military draft authorized in 2026?

No 89%
Yes 11%
$329K Vol.
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China x India military clash by...?

December 31, 2026 8% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$296K Vol.
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US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

No 46%
Yes 54%
$291K Vol.
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Who will Trump speak to in June?

Friedrich Merz 98% Yes No
Emmanuel Macron 98% Yes No

+19 more outcomes

$275K Vol.
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Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$257K Vol.
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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$246K Vol.
Polymarket