Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 30 28% Yes No
October 31 3% Yes No
$299K Vol.
Polymarket

NATO article 5 before 2027?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$298K Vol.
Polymarket

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

December 31, 2026 4% Yes No
July 31, 2026 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$292K Vol.
Polymarket

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$282K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?

December 31 5% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$280K Vol.
Polymarket

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D) 86% Yes No
Michele Tafoya (R) 14% Yes No
$279K Vol.
Polymarket

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$274K Vol.
Polymarket

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 2028 24% Yes No
December 31, 2027 16% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$273K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 2027 21% Yes No
December 31, 2026 10% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$273K Vol.
Polymarket

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$268K Vol.
Polymarket

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D) 95% Yes No
Bruce Blakeman (R) 5% Yes No
$262K Vol.
Polymarket

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

December 31 42% Yes No
November 30 24% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$262K Vol.
Polymarket

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D) 88% Yes No
Zach Lahn (R) 12% Yes No
$260K Vol.
Polymarket

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

December 31 22% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$258K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$256K Vol.
Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65% Yes No
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 32% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$250K Vol.
Polymarket

JD Vance out as VP by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$247K Vol.
Polymarket

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96% Yes No
Mike Collins (R) 4% Yes No
$243K Vol.
Polymarket

Vermont Governor Election Winner

Phil Scott (R) 76% Yes No
Amanda Janoo (D) 25% Yes No
$239K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?

October 31 7% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$238K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$237K Vol.
Polymarket

Florida Senate Election Winner

Ashley Moody (R) 90% Yes No
Angie Nixon (D) 10% Yes No
$232K Vol.
Polymarket

North Carolina Senate Election Winner

Roy Cooper (D) 96% Yes No
Michael Whatley (R) 4% Yes No
$232K Vol.
Polymarket

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$232K Vol.
Polymarket