Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

December 31, 2026 14% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No
$565K Vol.
Polymarket

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 97% Yes No
Flavio Bolsonaro 96% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$560K Vol.
Polymarket

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$540K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

December 31, 2026 8% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No
$534K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
September 30 2% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$527K Vol.
Polymarket

US military draft authorized in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$525K Vol.
Polymarket

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

David Crowley (D) 82% Yes No
Tom Tiffany (R) 20% Yes No
$518K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?

October 31 9% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$515K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

December 31 28% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$482K Vol.
Polymarket

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

December 31, 2026 7% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$482K Vol.
Polymarket

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

No 86%
Yes 14%
$467K Vol.
Polymarket

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola 64% Yes No
Sen. Dan Sullivan 36% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$465K Vol.
Polymarket

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$462K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$450K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 31 50% Yes No
September 30 19% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$447K Vol.
Polymarket

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$444K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Ryan Salame 26% Yes No
Stefan Brodie 24% Yes No

+26 more outcomes

$438K Vol.
Polymarket

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Eduardo Paes 95% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+21 more outcomes

$434K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$430K Vol.
Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$429K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 90% Yes No
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$428K Vol.
Polymarket

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova 68% Yes No
Аndrey Gyurov 30% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$412K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$406K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?

December 31 97% Yes No
September 30 95% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$398K Vol.
Polymarket