California Governor Election Winner Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Largest Company end of December 2026? Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Putin out as President of Russia by...? Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Presidential Election Winner 2028 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

California Governor Election Winner Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Largest Company end of December 2026? Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Putin out as President of Russia by...? Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Presidential Election Winner 2028 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Middle East

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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?

190-209 42% Yes No

170-189 30% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?

20-39 74% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

Houthis target Saudi Arabia by...?

September 15 56% Yes No

August 31 8% Yes No

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

July 31 100% Yes No

September 30 16% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

Will Iran target Oman by...?

September 30 18% Yes No

September 15 8% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

September 30 92% Yes No

August 31 90% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

September 30 7% Yes No

August 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?

September 30 11% Yes No

August 31 6% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?

September 30 12% Yes No

August 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?

September 30 43% Yes No

August 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

September 30 7% Yes No

August 31 1% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

Israel military action against Syria by...?

September 30 20% Yes No

September 15 14% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

September 30 8% Yes No

August 31 1% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

September 30 66% Yes No

September 15 53% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Will Iran target Qatar by...?

September 30 32% Yes No

September 15 26% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

September 30 26% Yes No

September 15 16% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Will Iran target Ukraine by...?

September 30 2% Yes No

August 31 0% Yes No

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

September 30 84% Yes No

September 15 66% Yes No

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

September 30 1% Yes No

July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

September 30 2% Yes No

August 31 0% Yes No

Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

September 30 2% Yes No

July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

September 30 3% Yes No

July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome