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Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?

Top outcomes

October 31 20%
September 30 16%
August 31 4%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$29K Vol. Closes Nov 1, 2026

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$28.9k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$29K Vol.

October 31

20% market probability

20%

Explain your Yes on October 31 Explain your No on October 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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September 30

16% market probability

16%

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0 / 2,000

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August 31

4% market probability

4%

Explain your Yes on August 31 Explain your No on August 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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