Open Polymarket

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Top outcomes

September 30 2%
August 31 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

$134K Vol. Closes Oct 1, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$134.0k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$134K Vol.

September 30

2% market probability

2%

Explain your Yes on September 30 Explain your No on September 30 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

August 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on August 31 Explain your No on August 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.