Science & Tech

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85 open forecasts

Events in Science & Tech

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GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

December 31 92% Yes No
October 31 32% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$313K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

December 31 97% Yes No
October 31 83% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$581K Vol.
Polymarket

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$595K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

55%+ 100% Yes No
60%+ 36% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$170K Vol.
Polymarket

Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

50%+ 100% Yes No
55%+ 100% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$138K Vol.
Polymarket

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

45%+ 51% Yes No
50%+ 40% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$162K Vol.
Polymarket

Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

50%+ 100% Yes No
55%+ 76% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$143K Vol.
Polymarket

How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?

12-15 77% Yes No
16-19 9% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$207K Vol.
Polymarket

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

0 77% Yes No
1 18% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$365K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<5 58% Yes No
5-6 36% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$525K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑1k 100% Yes No
↑2k 100% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$8.1M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$28K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

New pandemic in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

1480+ 27% Yes No
1500+ 24% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$291K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

40%+ 29% Yes No
45%+ 27% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$107K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

December 31 29% Yes No
November 30 25% Yes No

+24 more outcomes

$1.6M Vol.
Polymarket

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$325K Vol.
Polymarket

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$88 Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Plague case in US by December 31?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$14K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Plague declared public health emergency by...?

December 31 2% Yes No
November 30 2% Yes No
$21K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Plague pandemic in 2026?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$493K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$112K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

December 31 14% Yes No
October 31 6% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$11K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

SSI public model released by…?

December 31 40% Yes No
November 30 24% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$134K Vol.
Polymarket