Politics

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192 open forecasts

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Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

June 30, 2026 7% Yes No
December 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$2.0M Vol.
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Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

June 30 1% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$1.9M Vol.
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Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic 58% Yes No
Republican 40% Yes No
$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

December 31 56% Yes No
June 30 8% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.8M Vol.
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Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Byron Donalds 93% Yes No
James Fishback 5% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.7M Vol.
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What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Oil Sanction Relief 56% Yes No
Unfreeze Iranian Assets 49% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$1.6M Vol.
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Ukraine election called by...?

December 31, 2026 14% Yes No
June 30, 2026 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$1.6M Vol.
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Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

June 30 6% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$1.6M Vol.
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Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

United Russia (ER) 96% Yes No
New People (NL) 2% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.
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Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

June 30 4% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.
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Kash Patel out by...?

December 31 54% Yes No
June 30 7% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$1.4M Vol.
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Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Jared Kushner 43% Yes No
J.D. Vance 40% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$1.4M Vol.
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Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$1.3M Vol.
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Israeli parliament dissolved by...?

July 31 68% Yes No
June 30 18% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.3M Vol.
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Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$1.3M Vol.
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Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$1.2M Vol.
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Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$1.2M Vol.
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Will any country leave NATO by...?

December 31, 2026 5% Yes No
June 30, 2026 1% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.1M Vol.
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Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

No 1%
Yes 99%
$1.1M Vol.
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Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$1.0M Vol.
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Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?

December 31 17% Yes No
September 30 4% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$1.0M Vol.
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Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?

June 30 8% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.0M Vol.
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Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?

September 30 9% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$954K Vol.
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