Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

July 31 100% Yes No
September 30 16% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$780K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela 10% Yes No
Indonesia 10% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$748K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

December 31 1% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$625K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Iran target Ukraine by...?

September 30 2% Yes No
August 31 0% Yes No
$496K Vol.
Polymarket

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?

September 30 15% Yes No
August 31 1% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$456K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$434K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

December 31 48% Yes No
September 30 11% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$387K Vol.
Polymarket

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

No 68%
Yes 32%
$361K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

No 86%
Yes 14%
$357K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Maia Sandu 100% Yes No
Andy Burnham 100% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$356K Vol.
Polymarket

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$345K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

September 30 7% Yes No
August 31 1% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$339K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?

December 31 85% Yes No
October 31 74% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$327K Vol.
Polymarket

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$324K Vol.
Polymarket

European military action against Iran by...?

December 31 7% Yes No
October 31 4% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$324K Vol.
Polymarket

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

December 31 5% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$308K Vol.
Polymarket

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

No 85%
Yes 15%
$301K Vol.
Polymarket

Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

September 30 2% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$208K Vol.
Polymarket

US x China Military clash before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$201K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

December 31 18% Yes No
September 30 4% Yes No
$199K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

September 30 8% Yes No
August 31 1% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$191K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

December 31 28% Yes No
September 30 6% Yes No
$188K Vol.
Polymarket

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$186K Vol.
Polymarket

Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

September 30 2% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$185K Vol.
Polymarket