Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

8 31% Yes No
9 28% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

June 30 7% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?

Druzkhivka 3% Yes No
Dopropillia 2% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

June 30 20% Yes No
June 15 8% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$896K Vol.
Polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

$817K Vol.
Polymarket

US x Russia military clash by...?

December 31, 2026 6% Yes No
June 30, 2026 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$752K Vol.
Polymarket

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$729K Vol.
Polymarket World

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 31 34% Yes No
October 31 20% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$364K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$319K Vol.
Polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25?

25-49 100% Yes No
<25 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$300K Vol.
Polymarket

Iran closes its airspace by...?

December 31 80% Yes No
August 31 68% Yes No

+10 more outcomes

$241K Vol.
Polymarket

Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

No 0%
Yes 100%
$169K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

United States 28% Yes No
Pakistan 20% Yes No

+17 more outcomes

$165K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Svitle by...?

June 30 6% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$162K Vol.
Polymarket

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

20+ 26% Yes No
40+ 18% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$148K Vol.
Polymarket

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco 60% Yes No
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar 55% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$143K Vol.
Polymarket

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?

Forecasts closed
June 30 43% Yes No
June 7 1% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$113K Vol.
Polymarket

Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?

Forecasts closed
June 30 40% Yes No
June 7 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$97K Vol.
Polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?

25-49 100% Yes No
<25 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$89K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?

June 30 7% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$87K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$78K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Lebanon 20% Yes No
Indonesia 12% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$60K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

June 7 100% Yes No
June 15 100% Yes No
$49K Vol.
Polymarket

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$34K Vol.
Polymarket