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All markets
Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8
31%
Yes
No
9
28%
Yes
No
+14 more outcomes
$1.5M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
June 30
7%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?
Druzkhivka
3%
Yes
No
Dopropillia
2%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
June 30
20%
Yes
No
June 15
8%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$896K Vol.
Polymarket
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
$817K Vol.
Polymarket
US x Russia military clash by...?
December 31, 2026
6%
Yes
No
June 30, 2026
1%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$752K Vol.
Polymarket
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
10%
$729K Vol.
Polymarket
World
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31
34%
Yes
No
October 31
20%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$364K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
No
99%
Yes
1%
$319K Vol.
Polymarket
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25?
25-49
100%
Yes
No
<25
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$300K Vol.
Polymarket
Iran closes its airspace by...?
December 31
80%
Yes
No
August 31
68%
Yes
No
+10 more outcomes
$241K Vol.
Polymarket
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?
No
0%
Yes
100%
$169K Vol.
Polymarket
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
United States
28%
Yes
No
Pakistan
20%
Yes
No
+17 more outcomes
$165K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Svitle by...?
June 30
6%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$162K Vol.
Polymarket
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
20+
26%
Yes
No
40+
18%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$148K Vol.
Polymarket
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
60%
Yes
No
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
55%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$143K Vol.
Polymarket
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
Forecasts closed
June 30
43%
Yes
No
June 7
1%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$113K Vol.
Polymarket
Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?
Forecasts closed
June 30
40%
Yes
No
June 7
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$97K Vol.
Polymarket
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?
25-49
100%
Yes
No
<25
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$89K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?
June 30
7%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$87K Vol.
Polymarket
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?
No
95%
Yes
5%
$78K Vol.
Polymarket
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Lebanon
20%
Yes
No
Indonesia
12%
Yes
No
+14 more outcomes
$60K Vol.
Polymarket
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
June 7
100%
Yes
No
June 15
100%
Yes
No
$49K Vol.
Polymarket
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$34K Vol.
Polymarket
Showing 25–48 of 49