Resolved Polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25?

Top outcomes

25-49 100%
<25 0%
100+ 0%
50-74 0%

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

$300K Vol. Closed Jun 1, 2026
Resolved outcome: 25-49

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$299.7k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$300K Vol.

25-49

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

<25

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

100+

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

50-74

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

75-99

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Log in to place your forecast on this event.
Forecasts are closed because this market is no longer accepting forecasts.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts were placed before this market closed.