Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 31 30% Yes No
November 30 26% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$416K Vol.
Polymarket

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

Delcy Rodríguez 94% Yes No
María Corina Machado 3% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$411K Vol.
Polymarket

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 31 12% Yes No
October 31 3% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$409K Vol.
Polymarket

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 31 76% Yes No
November 30 73% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$404K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico 16% Yes No
Israel 14% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$402K Vol.
Polymarket

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow 71% Yes No
Brad Bradford 28% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$401K Vol.
Polymarket

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 31 24% Yes No
October 31 10% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$389K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$385K Vol.
Polymarket

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$381K Vol.
Polymarket

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen 88% Yes No
Édouard Philippe 42% Yes No

+35 more outcomes

$381K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$360K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
October 31 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$355K Vol.
Polymarket

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

No 22%
Yes 78%
$350K Vol.
Polymarket

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat 96% Yes No
PSD 3% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$348K Vol.
Polymarket

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner

Chris Pappas (D) 88% Yes No
John E. Sununu (R) 12% Yes No
$334K Vol.
Polymarket

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 31 38% Yes No
October 31 10% Yes No
$333K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$318K Vol.
Polymarket

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D) 95% Yes No
John James (R) 5% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$311K Vol.
Polymarket

Andrew Tate released from custody by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$311K Vol.
Polymarket

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 31 16% Yes No
October 31 6% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$305K Vol.
Polymarket

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$303K Vol.
Polymarket

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

Kuomintang (KMT) 70% Yes No
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 30% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$299K Vol.
Polymarket

Florida Governor Election Winner

Byron Donalds (R) 80% Yes No
David Jolly (D) 20% Yes No
$297K Vol.
Polymarket

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

December 31, 2026 4% Yes No
July 31, 2026 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$292K Vol.
Polymarket