Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$198K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?

December 31 38% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$193K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$190K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$183K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?

December 31 16% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$182K Vol.
Polymarket

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

No 60%
Yes 40%
$180K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$179K Vol.
Polymarket

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat 36% Yes No
PSD 22% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$178K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will Trump speak to in July?

Mark Rutte 100% Yes No
Mark Carney 100% Yes No

+21 more outcomes

$175K Vol.
Polymarket

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$172K Vol.
Polymarket

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

No meeting by December 31 72% Yes No
China 14% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$170K Vol.
Polymarket

NATO article 5 before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$165K Vol.
Polymarket

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

No 11%
Yes 89%
$165K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$163K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?

Lisa Nandy 100% Yes No
Ed Miliband 100% Yes No

+27 more outcomes

$162K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?

December 31 14% Yes No
September 30 0% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$160K Vol.
Polymarket

France United Left Primary Winner

Canceled 95% Yes No
François Ruffin 2% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$159K Vol.
Polymarket

Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner

LPV 38% Yes No
AS 37% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$159K Vol.
Polymarket

Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$159K Vol.
Polymarket

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Republican 58% Yes No
Democrat 42% Yes No
$158K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$155K Vol.
Polymarket

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Likud 56% Yes No
Yashar 44% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$154K Vol.
Polymarket

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$154K Vol.
Polymarket

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$153K Vol.
Polymarket