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Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Top outcomes
Other
50%
Person I
50%
Person J
50%
Person K
50%
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.
To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.
The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.
If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.
If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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$70K Vol.
Closes Mar 1, 2027
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$69.7k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$70K Vol.
Other
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Person I
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person J
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Person J
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person K
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Person K
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person L
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person M
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Person M
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person N
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person O
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person P
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Person P
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person Q
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person R
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person S
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person T
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person U
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person V
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Person V
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person W
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Person W
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person X
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Person X
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person Y
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Person Y
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Person Z
50% market probability
50%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 50%
+50 / −50
Explain your Yes on Person Z
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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No Next Minister by Feb 28
32% market probability
32%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 68%
+32 / −68
Explain your Yes on No Next Minister by Feb 28
Explain your No on No Next Minister by Feb 28
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Gadi Eizenkot
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on Gadi Eizenkot
Explain your No on Gadi Eizenkot
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Avigdor Lieberman
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on Avigdor Lieberman
Explain your No on Avigdor Lieberman
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Naftali Bennett
11% market probability
11%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 89%
+11 / −89
Explain your Yes on Naftali Bennett
Explain your No on Naftali Bennett
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Israel Katz
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Israel Katz
Explain your No on Israel Katz
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Yair Lapid
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Yair Lapid
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Eli Cohen
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on Eli Cohen
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Gideon Sa’ar
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-26']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Gideon Sa’ar
Explain your No on Gideon Sa’ar
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Ron Dermer
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-27']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on Ron Dermer
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Benny Gantz
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-28']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Benny Gantz
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Yoram Cohen
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-29']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Yoram Cohen
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Yair Golan
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-30']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Yair Golan
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Yossi Cohen
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-31']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Yossi Cohen
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Amir Ohana
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-32']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Amir Ohana
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Benjamin Netanyahu
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-33']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Benjamin Netanyahu
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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