Geopolitics

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Iran Reconstruction Funding 12% Yes No

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium 10% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$795K Vol.

Polymarket

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

No meeting by December 31 50% Yes No

China 40% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$785K Vol.

Polymarket

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027 92% Yes No

China 1% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$3.2M Vol.

Polymarket Politics

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Kuwait 18% Yes No

Qatar 14% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$51K Vol.

Polymarket

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Belgium 18% Yes No

New Zealand 16% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$758K Vol.

Polymarket World

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico 18% Yes No

India 17% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$388K Vol.

Polymarket

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 32% Yes No

Steve Witkoff 32% Yes No

+18 more outcomes

$356K Vol.

Polymarket

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Xi Jinping 100% Yes No

Javier Milei 100% Yes No

+24 more outcomes

$976K Vol.

Polymarket World

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

No 93%

Yes 7%

$76K Vol.

Polymarket

Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by...?

December 31 32% Yes No

October 31 28% Yes No

$63K Vol.

Polymarket

Will any country leave NATO by...?

December 31, 2026 2% Yes No

June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.4M Vol.

Polymarket Politics

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

No 96%

Yes 4%

$211K Vol.

Polymarket

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

December 31, 2026 22% Yes No

December 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$3.7M Vol.

Polymarket Politics

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

December 31 31% Yes No

June 30 0% Yes No

$767K Vol.

Polymarket World

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

No 88%

Yes 12%

$406K Vol.

Polymarket

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

December 31, 2026 10% Yes No

June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

$534K Vol.

Polymarket

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 98%

Yes 2%

$194K Vol.

Polymarket

Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

December 31 6% Yes No

October 31 4% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$117K Vol.

Polymarket

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

December 31 56% Yes No

June 30 0% Yes No

$482K Vol.

Polymarket

Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?

December 31 97% Yes No

September 30 95% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$398K Vol.

Polymarket

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

December 31 24% Yes No

June 30 0% Yes No

$118K Vol.

Polymarket

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

No 97%

Yes 3%

$444K Vol.

Polymarket

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

No 96%

Yes 4%

$11.7M Vol.

Polymarket Politics

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

December 31 3% Yes No

June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$955K Vol.

Polymarket World