Economy

Rates, inflation, jobs, and macro trends

158 open forecasts

Events in Economy

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South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0% 83% Yes No
4.7-5.0% 7% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$94K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9% 68% Yes No
3.0–3.4% 12% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$141K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause 60% Yes No
Pause-Pause-Pause 9% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$52K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Fed Decision in January?

No change 62% Yes No
25 bps increase 34% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$565K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0% 96% Yes No
5.0–6.0% 3% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$935K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

US recession by end of 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0% 48% Yes No
0-1.0% 44% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$58K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0% 5% Yes No
5.5% 2% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$568K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 72% Yes No
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 28% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$105K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2% 89% Yes No
0-1% 6% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$112K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

No 91%
Yes 9%
$10K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1m 100% Yes No
1.1m 100% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$188K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 2027 24% Yes No
December 31 10% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$5.0M Vol.
Polymarket World

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4% 88% Yes No
3.0-3.4% 6% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$76K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9% 96% Yes No
2.0-2.4% 3% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$59K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

UK Recession in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$16K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

800–900B 43% Yes No
700–800B 21% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$25K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

RBC 3% Yes No
Citigroup 3% Yes No

+17 more outcomes

$85K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

AI bubble burst by...?

June 30, 2027 16% Yes No
December 31, 2026 10% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$3.1M Vol.
Polymarket

OpenAI IPO by...?

June 30, 2027 34% Yes No
March 31, 2027 20% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$3.1M Vol.
Polymarket

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 2027 10% Yes No
December 31, 2026 2% Yes No
$50K Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting 51% Yes No
April 2027 Meeting 32% Yes No

+11 more outcomes

$3.8M Vol.
Polymarket Economy

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

$1.75–$2.0T 26% Yes No
$2.0–$2.25T 19% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

600B+ 94% Yes No
No IPO by December 31, 2027 5% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$526K Vol.
Polymarket