Open Economy Polymarket

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

Top outcomes

1-2% 44%
0-1% 32%
<0 14%
3-4% 2%

This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release. If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

$30K Vol. Closes Feb 12, 2027

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$30.3k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$30K Vol.

1-2%

44% market probability

44%

Explain your Yes on 1-2% Explain your No on 1-2% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

0-1%

32% market probability

32%

Explain your Yes on 0-1% Explain your No on 0-1% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

<0

14% market probability

14%

Explain your Yes on <0 Explain your No on <0 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

3-4%

2% market probability

2%

Explain your Yes on 3-4% Explain your No on 3-4% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

4-5%

2% market probability

2%

Explain your Yes on 4-5% Explain your No on 4-5% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

2-3%

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on 2-3% Explain your No on 2-3% (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

5%+

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on 5%+ Explain your No on 5%+ (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.