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Polymarket
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
Top outcomes
$1.5–$1.75T
17%
<$1.25T
16%
$1.25–$1.5T
16%
$1.75–$2.0T
12%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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$97K Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$96.6k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$97K Vol.
$1.5–$1.75T
17% market probability
17%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 17%
+83 / −17
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 83%
+17 / −83
<$1.25T
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on <$1.25T
Explain your No on <$1.25T
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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$1.25–$1.5T
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on $1.25–$1.5T
Explain your No on $1.25–$1.5T
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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$1.75–$2.0T
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on $1.75–$2.0T
Explain your No on $1.75–$2.0T
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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$2.5–$2.75T
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on $2.5–$2.75T
Explain your No on $2.5–$2.75T
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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$2.0–$2.25T
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on $2.0–$2.25T
Explain your No on $2.0–$2.25T
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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No IPO by December 31, 2027
7% market probability
7%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 93%
+7 / −93
Explain your Yes on No IPO by December 31, 2027
Explain your No on No IPO by December 31, 2027
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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$2.25–$2.5T
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on $2.25–$2.5T
Explain your No on $2.25–$2.5T
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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$3.0T+
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
Explain your Yes on $3.0T+
Explain your No on $3.0T+
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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$2.75–$3.0T
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Explain your Yes on $2.75–$3.0T
Explain your No on $2.75–$3.0T
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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