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Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Anthropic 91% Yes No
Google 6% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$13.0M Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

xAI 0% Yes No
Google 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$11.9M Vol.
Polymarket

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

>$1T 99% Yes No
>$1.2T 97% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$9.2M Vol.
Polymarket

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑1k 100% Yes No
↑2k 100% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$7.7M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Other (incl $SPCX) 100% Yes No
$SPAX 0% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$7.0M Vol.
Polymarket

Claude 5 released by…?

June 12, 2026 100% Yes No
June 19, 2026 100% Yes No

+10 more outcomes

$4.5M Vol.
Polymarket

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

1T+ 99% Yes No
No IPO before 2028 0% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$4.0M Vol.
Polymarket

Claude Mythos released by…?

June 9 100% Yes No
July 31 100% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$3.2M Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 88% Yes No
Google 8% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$1.6M Vol.
Polymarket

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16 36% Yes No
11–13 33% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0 64% Yes No
1 20% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

GPT-5.6 released by...?

July 31 96% Yes No
June 30 94% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$784K Vol.
Polymarket

New pandemic in 2026?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$716K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Claude 4.8 released by...?

$681K Vol.
Polymarket

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$633K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Anthropic 85% Yes No
Google 10% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$579K Vol.
Polymarket

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$569K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

December 31 38% Yes No
September 30 38% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$542K Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?

$521K Vol.
Polymarket

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<5 56% Yes No
5-6 24% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$465K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

No 100%
Yes 0%
$349K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No 70%
Yes 30%
$331K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

No 71%
Yes 29%
$306K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Forecasts closed
2nd hottest 99% Yes No
3rd hottest 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$247K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech