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All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑1k 100% Yes No
↑2k 100% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$7.9M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

GPT-6 released by…?

December 31, 2026 73% Yes No
November 30, 2026 68% Yes No

+11 more outcomes

$1.7M Vol.
Polymarket

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16 46% Yes No
17–19 37% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

October 31 69% Yes No
September 30 16% Yes No

+19 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0 55% Yes No
1 35% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

December 31, 2027 46% Yes No
June 30, 2027 30% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket

New pandemic in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$1.0M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?

October 31 98% Yes No
September 30 94% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$1.0M Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Anthropic 72% Yes No
OpenAI 10% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$864K Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic 94% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$837K Vol.
Polymarket

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$813K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$580K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<5 54% Yes No
5-6 44% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$507K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

OpenAI’s Astra released by…?

October 31 92% Yes No
September 30 84% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$439K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

No 5%
Yes 95%
$414K Vol.
Polymarket

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

December 31, 2026 30% Yes No
October 31, 2026 8% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$357K Vol.
Polymarket

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

November 30 91% Yes No
October 31 66% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$352K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No 85%
Yes 15%
$341K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

No 74%
Yes 26%
$313K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$312K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Natural Disaster in 2026?

No 77%
Yes 23%
$243K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

#5 100% Yes No
#10 100% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$213K Vol.
Polymarket

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$202K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

1560 32% Yes No
1580 21% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$192K Vol.
Polymarket