Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$406K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

No 3%
Yes 97%
$399K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?

December 31 97% Yes No
September 30 95% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$398K Vol.
Polymarket

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$398K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 74% Yes No
December 10% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$388K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

India 17% Yes No
Mexico 16% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$388K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

December 31 48% Yes No
September 30 10% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$387K Vol.
Polymarket

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

1.8T+ 83% Yes No
1.5–1.8T 14% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$385K Vol.
Polymarket

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

No 74%
Yes 26%
$376K Vol.
Polymarket

Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner

Cleitinho Azevedo 88% Yes No
Alexandre Kalil 4% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$376K Vol.
Polymarket

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

Delcy Rodríguez 90% Yes No
María Corina Machado 4% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$375K Vol.
Polymarket

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 31 12% Yes No
October 31 4% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$373K Vol.
Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva 5-10% 44% Yes No
Lula da Silva <5% 38% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$365K Vol.
Polymarket

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

No 68%
Yes 32%
$362K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Hibachi launch a token by ___?

December 31, 2027 84% Yes No
December 31, 2026 62% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$362K Vol.
Polymarket Crypto

Hyperbeat FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$10M 16% Yes No
$25M 12% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$361K Vol.
Polymarket Crypto

Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$5M 15% Yes No
$10M 14% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$359K Vol.
Polymarket Crypto

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

No 86%
Yes 14%
$358K Vol.
Polymarket

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

December 31, 2026 30% Yes No
October 31, 2026 8% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$357K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Maia Sandu 100% Yes No
Andy Burnham 100% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$356K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 32% Yes No
Steve Witkoff 32% Yes No

+18 more outcomes

$356K Vol.
Polymarket

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

November 30 92% Yes No
October 31 66% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$353K Vol.
Polymarket

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 96% Yes No
Nathalie Arthaud 88% Yes No

+44 more outcomes

$352K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$350K Vol.
Polymarket