Markets
All markets
Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$153K Vol.
Polymarket
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
$151K Vol.
Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$147K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
No
95%
Yes
5%
$147K Vol.
Polymarket
Next Senate Majority Leader?
John Thune
50%
Yes
No
Chuck Schumer
40%
Yes
No
+9 more outcomes
$146K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by...?
December 31
4%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$142K Vol.
Polymarket
Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner
William Azaroff
31%
Yes
No
Ken Sim
24%
Yes
No
+10 more outcomes
$141K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...?
December 31
76%
Yes
No
July 31
6%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$137K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Toretske by...?
September 30
36%
Yes
No
July 31
4%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$136K Vol.
Polymarket
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
$136K Vol.
Polymarket
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface 10–20%
31%
Yes
No
Binface <10%
28%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$126K Vol.
Polymarket
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
48%
Yes
No
December
15%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$123K Vol.
Polymarket
Ukraine coup attempt by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$123K Vol.
Polymarket
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by...?
August 31
1%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$117K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
$113K Vol.
Polymarket
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
No
99%
Yes
1%
$111K Vol.
Polymarket
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
$111K Vol.
Polymarket
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Republican
90%
Yes
No
Democrat
12%
Yes
No
$109K Vol.
Polymarket
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
76%
Yes
No
New People (NL)
16%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$107K Vol.
Polymarket
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$105K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?
September 30
8%
Yes
No
July 31
2%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$104K Vol.
Polymarket
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
No
92%
Yes
8%
$103K Vol.
Polymarket
Zambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde Hichilema
90%
Yes
No
Other
50%
Yes
No
+28 more outcomes
$103K Vol.
Polymarket
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
No
65%
Yes
35%
$101K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
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