Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$153K Vol.
Polymarket

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$151K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$147K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$147K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Senate Majority Leader?

John Thune 50% Yes No
Chuck Schumer 40% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$146K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$142K Vol.
Polymarket

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

William Azaroff 31% Yes No
Ken Sim 24% Yes No

+10 more outcomes

$141K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...?

December 31 76% Yes No
July 31 6% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$137K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Toretske by...?

September 30 36% Yes No
July 31 4% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$136K Vol.
Polymarket

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$136K Vol.
Polymarket

Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

Binface 10–20% 31% Yes No
Binface <10% 28% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$126K Vol.
Polymarket

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 48% Yes No
December 15% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$123K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$123K Vol.
Polymarket

Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by...?

August 31 1% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$117K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$113K Vol.
Polymarket

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$111K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$111K Vol.
Polymarket

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

Republican 90% Yes No
Democrat 12% Yes No
$109K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 76% Yes No
New People (NL) 16% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$107K Vol.
Polymarket

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$105K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?

September 30 8% Yes No
July 31 2% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$104K Vol.
Polymarket

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$103K Vol.
Polymarket

Zambia Presidential Election Winner

Hakainde Hichilema 90% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+28 more outcomes

$103K Vol.
Polymarket

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

No 65%
Yes 35%
$101K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech