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Polymarket
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Top outcomes
Marine Le Pen
86%
Other
50%
Candidate A
50%
Candidate B
50%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$34.1k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$34K Vol.
Marine Le Pen
86% market probability
86%
Yes 86%
+14 / −86
No 15%
+85 / −15
Other
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate A
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate B
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate C
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate D
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate E
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate F
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate G
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate H
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate I
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate J
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate K
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate L
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate M
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate N
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate O
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate P
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate Q
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate R
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate S
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate T
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate U
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate V
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate W
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate X
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate Y
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Candidate Z
50% market probability
50%
Yes 50%
+50 / −50
No 50%
+50 / −50
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9% market probability
9%
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
No 91%
+9 / −91
David Lisnard
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Édouard Philippe
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Jordan Bardella
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Bruno Retailleau
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
François Ruffin
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Sébastien Lecornu
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Raphaël Glucksmann
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Christine Lagarde
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Sarah Knafo
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Gabriel Attal
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Éric Zemmour
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Marine Tondelier
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
François Hollande
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Dominique de Villepin
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
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