Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?

December 31 97% Yes No
September 30 95% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$398K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

No 3%
Yes 97%
$394K Vol.
Polymarket

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 74% Yes No
December 10% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$388K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

India 17% Yes No
Mexico 16% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$388K Vol.
Polymarket

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

No 74%
Yes 26%
$376K Vol.
Polymarket

Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner

Cleitinho Azevedo 85% Yes No
Alexandre Kalil 4% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$376K Vol.
Polymarket

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

Delcy Rodríguez 90% Yes No
María Corina Machado 4% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$375K Vol.
Polymarket

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 31 12% Yes No
October 31 4% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$373K Vol.
Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva 5-10% 44% Yes No
Lula da Silva <5% 38% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$365K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 32% Yes No
Steve Witkoff 32% Yes No

+18 more outcomes

$356K Vol.
Polymarket

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 96% Yes No
Nathalie Arthaud 88% Yes No

+44 more outcomes

$352K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$350K Vol.
Polymarket

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

September 30 8% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$337K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 31 82% Yes No
September 30 16% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$333K Vol.
Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$328K Vol.
Polymarket

United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?

325–339 36% Yes No
310–324 24% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$322K Vol.
Polymarket

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

No 58%
Yes 42%
$319K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$310K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
September 30 2% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$302K Vol.
Polymarket

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Tarcísio de Freitas 98% Yes No
Fernando Haddad 2% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$293K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Borova by...?

September 30 6% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$292K Vol.
Polymarket

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

No 34%
Yes 66%
$288K Vol.
Polymarket

Andrew Tate released from custody by...?

December 31 21% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$287K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by...?

December 31 11% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$286K Vol.
Polymarket