Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

December 31 5% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$175K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Chuck Schumer 53% Yes No
John Thune 24% Yes No

+10 more outcomes

$174K Vol.
Polymarket

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$174K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 2027 22% Yes No
December 31, 2026 6% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$173K Vol.
Polymarket

Idaho Senate Election Winner

Jim Risch (R) 96% Yes No
Todd Achilles (I) 4% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$172K Vol.
Polymarket

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 31 65% Yes No
Qatar 13% Yes No

+17 more outcomes

$167K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$167K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$166K Vol.
Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro 76% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$164K Vol.
Polymarket

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$164K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$161K Vol.
Polymarket

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Other 46% Yes No
Democrats 8-10% 28% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$160K Vol.
Polymarket

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$158K Vol.
Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$155K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$152K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?

December 31 14% Yes No
October 31 2% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$151K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Joe Biden 100% Yes No
Ilhan Omar 100% Yes No

+39 more outcomes

$146K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

Trump renames New Mexico to New America by...?

December 31 2% Yes No
September 30 0% Yes No
$146K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?

December 31 3% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$145K Vol.
Polymarket

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 30 50% Yes No
October 31 25% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$143K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

December 31 75% Yes No
October 31 1% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$142K Vol.
Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 61% Yes No
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 34% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$142K Vol.
Polymarket

CA-28 House Election Winner

Judy Chu (D) 97% Yes No
April Verlato (R) 2% Yes No
$142K Vol.
Polymarket

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

December 31, 2026 18% Yes No
August 6, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$142K Vol.
Polymarket