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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Which party will win the House in 2026? Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Epstein client list released by...? How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Pro Football: 2027 Champion Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? MLB: 2026 American League Champion Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? MLS Cup Winner 2026
Open Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Top outcomes

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 58%
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 33%
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate 4%
Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate 3%

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf

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$79K Vol. Closes Nov 4, 2026

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$78.9k Vol.

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$79K Vol.

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

58% market probability

58%

Explain your Yes on No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate Explain your No on No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate (optional)

0 / 2,000

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No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate

33% market probability

33%

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Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate

4% market probability

4%

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Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate

3% market probability

3%

Explain your Yes on Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate Explain your No on Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate (optional)

0 / 2,000

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