Geopolitics
Forecasts in Geopolitics · Politics
165 open forecasts of 414 in Politics
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Events in Geopolitics
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Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
82%
Yes
No
No Head of State
5%
Yes
No
+30 more outcomes
$39.0M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$195K Vol.
Polymarket
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$106K Vol.
Polymarket
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
$250K Vol.
Polymarket
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
No
16%
Yes
84%
$751K Vol.
Polymarket
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
No
76%
Yes
24%
$374K Vol.
Polymarket
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
51%
Yes
No
Benjamin Netanyahu
29%
Yes
No
+17 more outcomes
$34.3M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
No
95%
Yes
5%
$635K Vol.
Polymarket
World
Will Alberta join the US?
No
98%
Yes
2%
$2.2M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
No
88%
Yes
12%
$33K Vol.
Polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
$40.4M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
No
98%
Yes
2%
$75K Vol.
Polymarket
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
$3.1M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
December 31
21%
Yes
No
September 30
6%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$245K Vol.
Polymarket
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
72%
Yes
No
December
10%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$387K Vol.
Polymarket
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
16%
Yes
No
October 31
10%
Yes
No
+10 more outcomes
$12.0M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
December 31
4%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$462K Vol.
Polymarket
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
December 31
12%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$265K Vol.
Polymarket
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
December 31
6%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$823K Vol.
Polymarket
World
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 31
28%
Yes
No
September 30
4%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$1.0M Vol.
Polymarket
World
Greece x Turkey military engagement by...?
December 31
5%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4
78%
Yes
No
6
10%
Yes
No
+14 more outcomes
$7.4M Vol.
Polymarket
Politics
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 31
12%
Yes
No
October 31
6%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$372K Vol.
Polymarket
India strike on Pakistan by...?
December 31, 2026
16%
Yes
No
October 31
0%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$991K Vol.
Polymarket
World
Showing 25–48 of 165