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Who will enter Iran by June 30?
Top outcomes
Any U.S. Senator
2%
Any U.S. House member
1%
JD Vance
0%
Marco Rubio
0%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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$4.3M Vol.
Closes Jun 30, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$4.3m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$4.3M Vol.
Any U.S. Senator
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
Any U.S. House member
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Any U.S. House member
Explain your No on Any U.S. House member
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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JD Vance
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on JD Vance
Explain your No on JD Vance
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Marco Rubio
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Marco Rubio
Explain your No on Marco Rubio
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Pete Hegseth
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Pete Hegseth
Explain your No on Pete Hegseth
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Jared Kushner
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Jared Kushner
Explain your No on Jared Kushner
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Donald Trump
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Donald Trump
Explain your No on Donald Trump
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Benjamin Netanyahu
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Benjamin Netanyahu
Explain your No on Benjamin Netanyahu
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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Public forecast history
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